The market value of Bitcoin is one of the most reliable chain metrics for identifying local and macro tops and bottoms across all BTC cycles, from realised value, or MVRV ratio. By isolating data between different investor cohorts and adapting past benchmarks to modern market conditions, we can generate more accurate insights into where Bitcoin is heading next.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio
The MVRV ratio compares the market price of Bitcoin with the realised price. This is essentially an average cost basis for all coins in the network. At the time of writing, BTC traded about $105,000, with the realized price floating near $47,000, bringing the RAW MVRV to 2.26. The Z-score version of MVRV standardizes this ratio based on historical volatility, allowing for a more clear comparison across different market cycles.
Figure 1: Historically, MVRV ratios and MVRV Z scores accurately identify cycle peaks and bottoms. View live charts
Short term holders
Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin within 155 days, currently have a realised price of nearly $97,000. This metric often serves as dynamic support in bull markets and resists in bear markets. In particular, when the short-term holder MVRV hits 1.33, local tops have historically emerged, as seen several times in both 2017 and 2021. So far, in the current cycle, this threshold has already been mentioned four times, with each followed by a modest retrace.
Figure 2: Short-term holder MVRV, reaching 1.33 in recent cycles, is in line with local top. View live charts
Long term holders
Long-term holders who hold BTC for more than 155 days are currently only $33,500 on an average cost basis, with MVRV at 3.11. Historically, long-term holder MVRV values have reached around 12 at major peaks. However, we observe a trend that reduces each cycle.
Figure 3: Achieving the long-term holder MVRV value of 8 allows extrapolation to BTC prices above $300,000. View live charts
The key resistance band is between 7.5 and 8.5. This is the zone that has defined bulltop and previous retracement in all cycles since 2011. The current growth in realised prices ($40/day) lasted another 140-150 days, continuing to match previous cycle lengths, allowing us to reach somewhere in the $40,000 region. A peak MVRV of 8 means a price of nearly $320,000.
Smarter market compass
Unlike static, thorough metrics, the two-year rolling MVRV Z-score adapts to evolving market dynamics. By recalculating the average extremes of the rolling window, it smoothes out the natural volatile decay of Bitcoin as it matures. Historically, this version shows conditions for being acquired when levels above 3 are reached, and a constant accumulation zone when below -1. This metric, currently sitting under the age of 1, suggests that substantial benefits remain.
Figure 4: Current two-year rolling MVRV Z-scores suggest more positive price action in the future. View live charts
Timing and target
A view of BTC growth since the Cycle Lows chart shows that BTC was removed from the last major cycle low about 925 days. Historical comparisons with previous bull markets could be around 140-150 days away from the potential top, suggesting that both 2017 and 2021 peaks could occur 1,060-1,070 days after their respective lows. Although not deterministic, this alignment reinforces a wider picture of where we are within the cycle. If realized price trends and MVRV thresholds continue on their current trajectory, they could potentially bring about a final euphoria between the third quarter and early 2025.
Figure 5: Does the current cycle continue to show similar growth patterns to the previous two cycles? View live charts
Conclusion
MVRV ratios and their derivatives remain essential tools for analyzing the behavior of the Bitcoin market, providing clear markers for both accumulation and distribution. Whether or not adaptive metrics like short-term holders hovering near local top thresholds, long-term holders near historically significant zones of resistance, or two-year rolling MVRV Z-score signaling will adequately left-to-left the left runway, these data points should be used confluently.
A single metric should not be dependent on a single metric. There’s no need to predict the top or bottom alone, but together they provide a powerful lens for interpreting macro trends. As the market matures and volatility decreases, adaptive metrics become even more important in staying ahead of the curve.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.
This post, which maps the possibilities of Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle, was first published in Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Matt Crosby.
