About a week has passed since its birth, and Bitcoin ($BTC) According to Nick Pucklin, crypto market analyst and founder of media outlet CoinBureau, the recovery is “fragile” as the crypto market faces geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds from the continuing wars in the Middle East.
“Even if the war were to end now, its impact will probably be the story for 2026 and definitely the dominant story for Q2. We don’t expect any rate cuts until late Q3 or Q4,” Pucklin told Cointelegraph. he said:
“To push towards $90,000, we will need to see a combination of factors, including a ceasefire that brings an end to geopolitical tensions, a sustained fall in oil prices towards $80, and weaker-than-expected economic data, which ideally allays stagflation concerns.”
If Bitcoin ends the week above $71,000, it could signal a continued rally for Bitcoin. $BTCresistance is forming near the $74,000 level. A quick look showed it was trading at around $71,276, according to TradingView data.
The ongoing conflict is causing a spike in inflation and dampening hopes for another rate cut in 2026, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index report released Friday. Interest rate cuts and credit easing tend to stimulate asset prices.
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Bitcoin stumbles due to failed Iran negotiations and major escalation by US president
According to the Kobisi letter, Bitcoin has appreciated by about 5.8% since April 6, reaching over $73,000, but fell back to about $71,000 on April 11 following news of failed negotiations between the United States and Iran.
“Peace talks seem to have come to a screeching halt,” the Kobessi letter said, adding that “the outcome of the negotiations was probably the worst-case scenario.”
Following the failure of peace talks, US President Donald Trump said he had ordered the US military to impose a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz.
“I have also directed the Navy to search and interdict any vessels in international waters that have paid tolls to Iran. Those who pay illegal tolls will not have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump said on Saturday.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which determines U.S. interest rate policy, remain divided on whether to cut interest rates further in 2026, citing concerns about war-induced inflation.
The FOMC did not rule out raising interest rates in 2026 if inflation remains above its 2% target, according to the March FOMC meeting minutes.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a greater than 98% chance that the FOMC will maintain its current target rate range of 350 to 375 basis points in its next two meetings on April 29 and June 17. At the July 29 meeting, the probability drops to about 65%, making the probability of a 25bp rate cut 33.6%.
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