According to a CryptoQuant market note, Bitcoin spot trading volume has declined by 81% since October 2025. The decline, tracked by analyst Dirkforst, mirrors a pattern last seen in late 2022 and early 2023, just before the bear market ended and volatility returned.
The previous episode is instructive. In the first quarter of 2023, spot trading volume dried up to multi-year lows as BTC consolidated between $16,000 and $18,000. A sharp breakout followed, sending Bitcoin to its highest price in the next two years. The current crisis feels similarly. Daily participants have been declining in recent months, and on-chain transfer volumes associated with exchange activity have settled into a lethargic range.
When spot volume collapses
A collapse in the volume of a mature asset often indicates depletion. Sellers who panicked during the economic downturn have already pulled out. Buyers are holding back and waiting for clearer signals. This lack of activity can portend a volatile economic expansion, since even modest inflows of capital can cause abnormal price movements when liquidity is scarce.
Still, core infrastructure work hasn’t stalled. Developer activity across the top blockchains remains strong, indicating that crypto builders are not taking their cues from spot order books. Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Polygon continue to record high weekly commit numbers despite waning retail interest.
The political timing is also delicate. A major cryptocurrency bill faces fierce opposition from banking groups just days before a Senate vote, adding a layer of regulatory fog that could deter major companies from taking capital.
Cases that require attention
Past patterns are not roadmaps. The 2023 recovery was supported by expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the emergence of a new narrative around Bitcoin ETFs, both of which provided tailwinds. By mid-2026, the picture will be less clear. Interest rates remain high and there is no guarantee that the risk-on rotation that drove the previous rally will return in the same way.
Additionally, the 81% collapse in spot trading volume may simply reflect the market moving elsewhere. The dominance of derivatives, the increased use of OTC desks, and off-exchange settlement by institutions have changed the way large trades are executed. A decline in spot trading volumes reported by an exchange does not necessarily equate to a decline in overall demand.
What is certain is that the current old environment will not last forever. Periods of compression this deep usually resolve within a few weeks or months. Whether this solution is a breakthrough or a bust will likely depend on the following triggers: regulatory decisions, macro shifts, sudden inflows from ETFs, etc. For now, the on-chain signals are clear. The market is quiet, and that’s no small thing.
