Bitcoin (BTC) will experience one of the most complex and adverse scenarios ever in 2026. As of June 3, its price was below $66,000.
Price pressures are not caused by a single reason; Accumulation of events that worsen market sentiment. As reported by CriptoNoticias, these factors include the war between the US and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine, tariffs promoted by Donald Trump, and Strategy’s recent sale of 32 BTC.
Despite this, historical data shows that holding Bitcoin for four years continues to yield positive returns.
The BTC market has «.mantra» Frequently repeated phrases among long-term investors: Those who bought BTC and held it for “more than 4 years” did not lose any money. The current autumn forces us to qualify that word. The exact four years part is still valid for the analyzed period, but the “more than” no longer applies universally.
On June 3, 2022, the digital asset was trading at nearly $30,000. Four years later, the asset is trading at $65,820. This equates to a 119.4% gain for those who bought at the time and held their positions to this day.
Even during the worst economic times of the year, this rule was not broken. On February 6, 2026, BTC traded near its lowest level this year at $59,820. For those who bought on February 6, 2022, when BTC was trading at around $42,000, the investment still showed a return of around 42%.
This behavior is not an isolated event. As seen in the image above, BTC has gone through multiple bullish and bearish cycles since 2012. Suffered from over 70% bankruptcies, industry crises and macroeconomic events. It called into question its viability.
These include the collapse of Mt Gox in 2014, which caused a decline of more than 80%. The global collapse caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. And the FTX exchange bankruptcy in 2022 is considered one of the biggest crises in the history of the digital asset sector.
However, if June is the base month, holding BTC for 4 years will not result in any loss so far.
for example, Those who bought BTC in June 2012 and held their positions until June 2016 earned returns of over 4,000%..
From June 2013 to June 2017. BTC rose from trading near $100 to over $2,000, an increase of over 1,900%.
The same logic was repeated from June 2014 to June 2018. A period that included one of the most severe bear markets in the history of digital currencies.. Still, BTC rose from the $600 area to over $6,000.
Between June 2017 and June 2021, BTC rose from around $2,500 to over $35,000, an increase of nearly 1,300%.
Subsequent periods show the same pattern. For those who purchased in June 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, They held that position for four years and continued to make a profit.
Something broke…
However, the current decline requires us to make this idea more clear. This rule still works if you look at a period of exactly four years, but not necessarily over a longer period.
For example, those who bought Bitcoin at the all-time high of $68,789 recorded on November 10, 2021 are still facing losses. BTC is currently trading around $65,825, and this reversal represents a decline of approximately 4.3%.
This is not the first time. In February 2026, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, those who had bought it at the November 2021 high also fell into negative territory.
Therefore, the data shows that holding Bitcoin for 4 years remains profitable so far. However, that does not mean that investors who have held BTC for more than 4 years are necessarily in positive territory.
The difference is in the time axis
Please note that this does not mean that there are no losses on Bitcoin. Those who bought near historic highs, They experienced long periods of negative returns, as happened in November 2021.
In some cases, Investors were underwater for more than two years before recovering their positions.
The difference is in the time axis. The so-called “four-year rule” is aimed at sticking to volatility, rather than avoiding it.
However, this does not mean that the statistics will remain the same forever. The fact that BTC has risen in all four-year windows observed so far does not guarantee that the same will happen in the future.
All I can say is that so far, The latest adjustment is not enough to break this trend.
(Tag Translation)Bitcoin (BTC)
