There is a theoretical possibility that Bitcoin could be a better investment than gold at this very historical moment.
This is just a hypothesis, but it is supported by some data that at least makes it plausible, if not necessarily likely.
But to understand this reasoning, we need to stop thinking like classic retail investors and speculators (who are driven more by emotion and intuition than by reasoning and data) and analyze the current situation in the most objective and unbiased way.
rise and fall of gold
During the first few months of 2024, the price of gold began to rise as it became clear that Donald Trump was likely to win the Republican primary.
It rose from $2,030 to $2,360 an ounce in two months, a new all-time high at the time.
It’s worth noting that just over two years have passed since then, and we’ve still hit a number of all-time highs.
It began to rise again in July, hitting an all-time high of about $2,800 an ounce in October.
With Trump’s second term in the White House starting in January 2025, gold prices resumed their rise, reaching $3,500 an ounce in just four months.
Then, in August, a full-fledged speculative mini-bubble began to expand in the gold price, lasting about five and a half months, and thanks to this, the gold price continued to hit an all-time high of over $5,600 per ounce in January of this year.
But then that mini-bubble burst.
Current status of gold
Yesterday, the price of gold briefly fell below $4,300 an ounce, but the downward trend that started just before mid-March may not be over yet.
Last year’s mini-bubble began to inflate when the psychological barrier of $3,500 an ounce was forced to burst, but now that it has burst, prices remain well above that threshold.
Although it took about five and a half months to rise from $3,500 to its all-time high, the overall upward trend actually lasted seven full months. In fact, the downward trend that started in mid-March has only lasted three and a half months so far, so it could continue for weeks.
If this continues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see prices more or less return to where the mini-bubble started, at $3,500 an ounce. Additionally, it’s important to remember that the upward trend that lasted more than two years began at just over $2,000 an ounce.
Note that speculative mini-bubbles often behave exactly like this: It swells, bursts, and then returns everything to its previous state without any aftereffects.
The rise and fall of Bitcoin
Bitcoin has had a different trajectory.
Between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025, two speculative mini-bubbles inflated.
The first was caused by President Trump’s trade in late 2024 after his election victory, which rose from just under $70,000 to nearly $110,000.
The second round was implemented in April 2025 and lasted until October of the same year, hitting an all-time high of $126,000.
The mini-bubble burst from the second week of October, and the collapse had already ended after mid-November, but a second bubble occurred in late January 2026, continued until the first half of February, and finally $BTC It’s back under $70,000.
A subsequent rebound was attempted, but the rebound at the end of May failed.
Current status of Bitcoin
In fact, from February to today, Bitcoin’s price trend has remained flat within the $60,000 to $80,000 range, with rare exceptions above and below these psychological thresholds.
This is a sideways move with high volatility, so it may avoid a lot of superficial or short-term analysis.
Note that from March to October 2024, before President Trump won the election, that price fluctuated between $55,000 and $71,000, but with rare exceptions, it moves above or below that threshold, so the current sideways movement is actually occurring at a higher price point.
However, if we also take into account the real value loss of the US dollar over the past two years, the current sideways movement is occurring at a price range slightly above 2024 prices.
The same arguments I highlighted earlier regarding mini-bubbles also apply to Bitcoin. Prices are now back to more or less the same starting levels.
Gold vs. Bitcoin
In other words, Bitcoin’s downward trend may have come to an end, but gold’s downward trend is far from over.
If the situation is indeed like this (but this is just a hypothesis), buying gold at this particular moment may not necessarily be a good idea.
In fact, assuming gold’s downward trend continues to $3,500 per ounce, now may not be the best time to invest in gold.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin price is below $70,000, it could also be a good time to buy, assuming there is no further decline. However, it is important to remember that in major bear market years such as 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin typically records its lowest price peak in the last quarter of the year.
Note that during the recent drop below $70,000, many retail investors sold their Bitcoin, and some of these coins were purchased by whales on exchanges and withdrawn to wallets where they are no longer kept.
Moreover, other whales had already slightly increased their investments in the whale during February-March of this year, when the price was still below $70,000. $BTC.
Therefore, there is a theoretical possibility that Bitcoin could be a better investment than gold at this very historical moment, even if in the current circumstances this is still only an unproven hypothesis.
