OnChain analyst James Check says the conditions are building across artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and upcoming initial public offerings (IPOs) to create a situation where Bitcoin will be the least-held and least-forced asset on the market when the cycle turns.
Important points:
- Checkonchain founder James Check said Bitcoin’s “time pain” process removes sellers before big moves, leaving no forced liquidation pressure.
- Bank of America triggered a 70% bear market indicator in June 2026, lowering its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,100.
- Morningstar valued SpaceX at $780 billion, about 48% below private market value, citing a net loss and unproven Starship economics.
“Time pane” as a feature
James Check, founder of Checkonchain and co-author of Cointime Economies, laid out his thesis on the TFTC podcast in a clip shared on X. His central thesis is that as capital rotates into AI and high-growth technologies, it is the mechanism, not the risk, that will be left behind and ignored.
“Everyone always assumes that when Bitcoin goes down, the crocodile’s jaws approach,” Cech said. He added:
“No. The store closes because Bitcoin is forgotten, and suddenly Bitcoin is the only thing moving in the room.”
What he calls “time pain” is a slow decline in impatient holders and a shift to faster-moving trades. He argues that once this process is complete, the remaining holder base has no structural reason to sell and no one is in a position to force them to do so.
AI trading and upcoming IPO testing
Find out first-hand about the AI investment cycle. He sees it pulling capital away from everything else and creating valuations that don’t pass the basic smell test, especially regarding SpaceX’s IPO.
“The numbers are far from meaningful,” he said. “They’re changing the S&P rules to force this in because there are no buyers.”
Morningstar’s discounted cash flow analysis supports this skepticism. The company assigned SpaceX a fair value of $780 billion, roughly 48% to 55% below recent private market valuations of nearly $1.5 trillion and well below its reported IPO target of more than $1.75 trillion. Morningstar cited continued quarterly net losses, the need for significant future capital expenditures, and uncertainty surrounding unproven technologies, including Starship.
Check’s broad interpretation is that “hero IPOs” historically mark the beginning of the end of a bubble cycle. At that moment, when euphoria reaches its peak, he expects Bitcoin to remain maximally ignored.
Wall Street is watching for the same signals.
Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian recently issued a warning to investors to take profits. About 70% of the company’s bear market indicators were triggered, a level consistent with previous market peaks. BofA cited overvalued valuations, narrow AI and technology leadership driving much of the gain, weakening demand signals and credit stress. The company lowered its year-end S&P 500 index target to 7,100.
The context Check describes is that while hyperscalers are on pace to generate a combined capital investment of $600 billion to $725 billion in 2026 alone, monetization of enterprise AI has lagged orders of magnitude behind, a pattern identified by BofA. According to OpenAI’s internal forecasts, net losses will reach approximately $14 billion in 2026 alone, and cumulative losses will reach tens of billions of dollars by the time the company returns to profitability.
capital turnover theory
The capital turnover theory has been attracting attention across financial markets, with several prominent figures pointing out this trend. The theory is that both retail and institutional investors are selling their Bitcoin and exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings to use the funds to invest in AI.
Much of the attention is focused on SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, as it is very close and expected to seek up to $75 billion at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion. Pricing and trading is widely expected around June 11-12, 2026. Investors are also paying attention to OpenAI. OpenAI’s private valuation is estimated at $730 billion to $850 billion, and it has filed for a confidential S-1. Anthropic has received similar attention following its recent funding round, with the company reportedly secretly filing to go public.
What this means for Bitcoin holders
Check’s framework draws a clear line between the two types of capital. “Fast Money” follows the hottest stories and is constantly rotating. The long-term funds he holds are Bitcoin and gold, but the cycles do not fluctuate. “I don’t trade gold. I don’t trade Bitcoin,” he said. “Those are my long-term savings.”
His view is that holders who don’t share that belief are being actively weeded out at this point. Once the flush is complete, the remaining holder base has no structural reason to sell on the decline.
He described the current market structure as “the Ponzification of everything”, explaining that this is a late-stage dynamic where carrier risk drives fund managers into the AI name and away from static assets. In his reading, that consensus positioning is precisely what sets up the next asymmetric move.
He added:
“At the end of the day, I can’t imagine Bitcoin becoming a mass-owned asset and a mass-forced sale, because we’re in the process of flushing them as we speak.”
