Most traders claim that that This is the worst halving cycle in Bitcoin history, but data indicates may be compared came from A distorted starting point.
These concerns arose because Bitcoin ($BTC) performance The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $59,400, below about $64,000 on the day of the halving.
Bitcoin Halving Buyers Still Underwater
This indicates more than 800 days. laterinvestors who bought Bitcoin during the halving are still left with losses. This is the first time in Bitcoin’s history that half-day buyers have remained this far below the surface of the cycle. In all previous cycles, we were already profitable by this stage.
Bitcoin’s fall from its all-time highs is also adding to concerns. Specifically, the firstborn of crypto assets is The all-time high was approximately $126,000; Reached October 6, 2025.
Currently, this decline is still small compared to the more than 77% declines after the market peaks in 2018 and 2022, but Bitcoin has not delivered the large gains that the market recorded in earlier cycles.
distorted starting point
However, this cycle began in conditions Bitcoin has never experienced before, giving the halving date a skewed starting point. especially, $BTC had already reached New all-time high As of March 12, 2024, more than a month before the fourth halving, it was $73,800.
This was a big change from previous cycles. In previous halvings, Bitcoin still moved up Previous bull market peak until halving happened. As a result, on the day of the halving, the market still had room to rise before reaching new highs. This cycle took a completely different path.
The main reason for the difference was the launch of Spot in the US Bitcoin ETF These funds attracted large institutional demand long before the halving reduced new supply of Bitcoin. On the day of the halving, it had already collected $12.3 billion in cumulative net inflows.
This early buying caused Bitcoin’s price to rise significantly before the halving, creating an unusually high starting point.
Realized prices provide a better way to compare cycles
Many analysts believe that realized prices are a better benchmark because they do not react as quickly to single events. Specifically, realized price measures the average cost of all coins in circulation based on the last price each coin moved on the chain.
The realized price changes gradually as investors buy and sell Bitcoin, so it is less affected by major events such as ETF approval. This allows for a more stable way to compare different market cycles without introducing distortions caused by Bitcoin’s abnormal rise before the halving.
Bitcoin’s realized price The current price is $53,197, while the spot price is around $59,400. This means spot prices are trading at a premium of around 10% over realized prices, one of the smallest gaps seen during this cycle.
In past cycles, Bitcoin reached major market bottoms when the spot price was this close to the market price. I noticed Prices include lows recorded from late 2015 and 2018 to 2019 and 2022.
Bitcoin realized price still indicates a weak cycle
However, even after that, remove the influence of Bitcoin’s initial rally, realized price, does not provide a bullish basis for this cycle. Instead, it is still point to Performance is lower than previous half-life.
During this cycle, Bitcoin Market prices never rose significantly above realized prices, as they did during the peaks of major bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
During these early cycles, intense speculation drove Bitcoin’s market value to several times higher than the combined cost basis of all coins. Even when Bitcoin reached its all-time high in October 2025, there was no such difference this time.
The smaller the gap between spot price and I noticed price suggests this The market is behaving differently than before. The current cycle has been shaped by steady institutional purchases through Spot Bitcoin ETFs Rather than being primarily driven Due to retail speculation.
It’s still too early to know whether this will lead To a smaller market bottom, or just a quiet bull market. However, while using realized prices instead of Halving day prices remove the distortion caused by the ETF, but still indicate that the cycle was worse than others in similar period.
