What is Elo’s solution?
A new feature called prediction market Elo applies an Elo/MMR style scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and competitive game matchmaking. We rank traders based on how consistently they can predict the correct outcome, rather than how much money they move.
Arkham described the system at launch: prediction market Helps you find the performance rating (Elo) of Arkham Intel. ”
Every correct prediction increases a trader’s Elo score compared to the broader trader pool. Longshot calls pinpoint more edges, so predictions made at lower odds carry more weight than predictions made at higher odds. Bet size is not considered at all. In other words, a trader with a low bankroll but a high hit rate may outperform the top traders. volume whale Works less consistently.
Who leads the Elo Board?
The (Ratings) tab of the Arkham leaderboard shows that “GardenerCx” holds the top Elo score of 2389 at the time of launch. This is a short-term specialized account. cryptocurrency Market up/down and trade 5 minute price direction calls on Polymarket. With 2,512 resolved markets, this account has a 66.1% win rate, a 47% return on investment (ROI), and a realized profit of $51,400 on $110,700 in capital.
Arcam said in an article at the time of the announcement that GardenerCx “revolves around trading the top and bottom five-minute markets of cryptocurrencies with incredible accuracy” and had a 64.3% win rate on 2,644 bets at the time of publication.
The second-place account “roberto73” focuses on the soccer and FIFA World Cup markets, with a 47.8% win rate, $177,800 in profit, and 2,254 Elo in 2,835 markets. The third-place account, Oliveira39, covers sports including soccer and basketball, with a 43.5% win rate and $50,100 in profits across 1,817 markets.
The difference between profit and loss and eroticism
The contrast between profit-based rankings and Elo rankings is one of the clearest signals of this feature. In the (Top Traders) tab filtered by 7-day performance, ‘blunttedge’ comes out on top with a 75% win rate and $8.3 million profit with 1,027 trades. “1two1two” follows with a win rate of 83.3% and a profit/loss of $5.6 million with 2,435 trades.
One of the most prolific bettors on the platform, ‘Swisstony’ ranks third on the P&L board with a 52.9% win rate and recent profits of $3.4 million from 261,298 trades. On the Elo board, this account has a rating of 1514, which puts it in the top 7% of traders, but well below the accuracy leaders. Arkam noted that despite his high sizing and P&L, “his trades are consistently less profitable” compared to traders who score higher on pure forecast accuracy.
This separation indicates the intent of the system. PnL leaderboards are determined by position size and volume. The Elo board surfaces traders who consistently get the right results, no matter how much money they put in.
Background and access
Arkham first released the complete Prediction Markets analysis suite in early May 2026. That suite included P&L-based leaderboards, individual trader profiles with complete position history and win rate graphs, real-time trade feeds filterable by category, and deep integration with Arkham’s entity database, which includes over 3.5 billion address labels and over 800,000 verified entities.
Elo functionality builds directly on that foundation as an accuracy layer alongside existing profit-based tools.
What it means for traders
Prediction market volumes on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are steadily increasing through 2026. Until now, leaderboard visibility has been primarily directed towards the biggest bettors and biggest P&L names. The Elo system provides researchers and traders with a way to identify forecasters with documented skills. This is a clearer signal for those who want to track or analyze consistent edges rather than raw profits.
