In the virtual currency market, attention is focused on tomorrow’s expiration of major options. Approximately $9.87 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are reportedly set to expire and be settled.
Greek Thrive, which shares options market data, announced that 109,000 Bitcoin options will expire on that day. The put/call ratio for these contracts was 0.93, and the maximum loss threshold was calculated to be $72,000. The total notional value of Bitcoin options was recorded at $8.55 billion.
On the Ethereum side, 563,000 option contracts have expired. These contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.72 and a maximum price threshold of $2,200. The total notional value of Ethereum options is reported to be $1.32 billion.
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The recent market recovery has been remarkable. Analysts said the rise in Bitcoin prices above $78,000 and the positive atmosphere created by the Web3 conference in Hong Kong also contributed to the recovery in the altcoin market. With this week’s expiration being a significant part of the monthly options cycle, we expect approximately 25% of all open positions to be closed during this period. Looking at the distribution of open positions, 12% are concentrated on the expiration date at the end of May, and 24% are concentrated on the expiration date at the end of June.
Options market volatility data also provides important signals. Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) across various maturities continues to trend downward this month, with most maturities below 40%. In Ethereum, the IV level is still high, but the downward trend is clear. Current levels are hovering around 60%. Despite the price rally, the rebound in “distortion” data shows that active buying due to overoptimism or fear of missing out (FOMO) remains limited in the market.
*This is not investment advice.
