As the MVRV death cross appears, rare and potentially bearish signals appear in Bitcoin (BTC), raising concerns about the rising negative risk. According to a recent encrypted Quick Take, Bitcoin’s MVRV (market value to realised value) ratio has reached a critical stage, suggesting a change in market momentum.
Mount Side Risk for MVRV Dead Cross Signals Mount
“In early March, 30DMA crossed beneath the 365DMA – a bearish dead cross – weakened short-term momentum and showed growth in downward pressure…
As MVRV converges to the long-term historic average, you will see Pic.twitter.com/8rwegpvinj.
– cryptoquant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 31, 2025
The MVRV (from market value to realised value) ratio is an important on-chain indicator that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realised value, and helps you find periods of overvaluation or undervaluation of the market.
In general, high MVRVs indicate overheated markets, while low values indicate possible underestimation.
The MVRV 30DMA forms a crucifix of waning death with 365DMA, indicating a weaker short-term momentum and an increased downward pressure. Similar to past cycles, after this cross, the price declined when Bitcoin reached the local top, indicating its usefulness as a market sentiment indicator for MVRV.
What’s coming next?
As MVRV converges to the long-term historic average, Cryptoquant shows that the market may have left the overheating zone. However, there has not yet been a decisive bottom signal.
Bitcoin follows a similar corrective pattern as it had in the previous cycle, so investors should be aware of additional downside risks.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 2.31% in the last 24 hours to $81,449 early in the Asian market on Monday. Bitcoin is the fourth-day reduction course since March 27th, with today’s dip reaching an intraday low of $81,265.
What do other indicators reveal?
GlassNode’s Bitcoin Cost Base Distribution provides insight into current investors’ behavior. Following this metric, the most efficient traders bought around 15,000 BTC on March 10 at a low of $78,000 and sold at the local top of $87,000. There’s very little BTC left, so the support is thin at the $78,000 level.
The $80,920 support cluster exists under the spot price of Bitcoin, where nearly 20,000 BTC was added. As the fixes deepen, six months of cost-based data refers to this potential structural support below the spot price: $74,000 with 49,000 BTC added, $71,000 with about 41,000 BTC added.
According to GlassNode, these levels reflect a conviction-driven accumulation zone that could absorb additional downside pressure. Meanwhile, the major resistance could have formed around $95,000, with the investor cost-based cluster having increased by 12,000 BTC since March 24th.
