Bitcoin ($BTC) has expressed an optimistic outlook amid news of an indefinite ceasefire in the US-Iran war.
This strengthened the bullish forecast, but $BTCThe analysis firm said that although technical indicators are improving, short-term uncertainty remains.
Bitcoin’s technical outlook improved this week, but short-term uncertainty remains, according to the latest analysis from crypto analysis firm Matrixport.
The main determinant of Bitcoin’s future price movements will be continued inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The analysis firm says: $BTC has now recovered near key support levels, with indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD issuing buy signals.
However, despite these improvements, Bitcoin trading volumes are still insufficient and a breakout above the 200-day moving average (MA) on the daily chart has yet to occur.
Analysts said a break above the 200-day moving average is critical, and while there are clear signs of continued inflows into spot ETFs and an increase in institutional investors, there is also the possibility of short-term profit-taking.
In conclusion, the analysis firm argues that we need to wait for confirmation of a breakout above key resistance levels before we can speak more definitively about Bitcoin, and that a wait-and-see approach is the most prudent course of action for now.
Is Bitcoin’s recovery a signal of an uptrend?
In addition to Matrixport, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler also analyzed the latest situation in Bitcoin.
Selling pressure from short-term investors (STH) on Bitcoin reportedly decreased significantly in April.
The analyst said Bitcoin’s current price is around $78,000, which is still below the STH cost floor of around $83,000.
According to analysts, the market has not yet entered the premium range. $BTC remains below this level. Historically, the $83,000 STH cost floor was an important turning point for Bitcoin. Analysts argue that a recovery and consistently above this level usually indicates a more definitive uptrend.
After considering all the data comprehensively, the analysts concluded that the recovery is not a new upward trend. The analyst said the key point is whether Bitcoin can break through the STH cost base of $83,000. “If successful, the STH discount rate will turn into a premium, giving an important signal for a new up cycle. However, if this does not happen, the current recovery will likely be only a temporary phase and not a new uptrend.”
*This is not investment advice.
