Bitwise sees a much bigger pressure point beyond Bitcoin’s recent decline. That means there is close to $30 trillion in global debt that will need refinancing in 2026.
Bitwise said rising Japanese government bond yields and the IMF’s warnings about falling demand for government bonds could send markets into further trouble, and Bitwise believes this setup will ultimately benefit Bitcoin.
Debt pressures return to center stage
According to Bitwise, that kind of stress could be problematic if central banks respond with new liquidity. The company has structured Bitcoin as an asset that sits outside government balance sheets and does not depend on a central issuer. This gives Bitcoin a different role at a time when sovereign borrowing becomes more difficult to manage.
Image: IFCMarkets
The report also linked Bitcoin’s attractiveness to real interest rates. Bitwise said assets tend to perform better when real yields fall, and sticky inflation and a Fed moratorium could help set this up.
Bitcoin’s May rally lost steam after breaking above $80,000. It briefly reached around $83,000, then fell back to $70,000 after ETF outflows accelerated and sentiment cooled.
Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 in May 2026 before stalling at the $80,000-$85,000 bullish threshold before falling to $72,000. ETP outflows, Treasury stress and record holdings defined the month.
Read the full version of The Latest Bitcoin Macro Investor below. pic.twitter.com/oM5ctCIVxW
— Bitwise in Europe (@Bitwise_Europe) June 1, 2026
Tough range for traders
Bitwise said short squeezes, stronger on-chain signals, and net inflows of about $166.5 million into Bitcoin ETPs helped push it higher. Long-term holders also provided some support to the rally, adding about 125,000 BTC in the previous month.
The picture changed quickly. Global Bitcoin ETPs have seen net outflows of more than $1 billion, and the pressure has led to a decline in confidence as Bitcoin fails to break through the $80,000-$85,000 band, the company said.
Bitwise called the zone a key dividing line in the market. Price movement around this range will continue to determine whether traders view the market as healthy or vulnerable, he said.
BTCUSD trading at $69,402 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Maintain holding pattern, tighten supply
Even as demand weakens, the supply side is moving in a tighter direction, Bitwise said. Long-term investors currently hold a record 14.85 million BTC, or approximately 73% of the circulating supply.
The company added that 60% of Bitcoins have not moved for more than a year, 48.5% have not moved for more than two years, 42.8% have not moved for more than three years, and 33% have not moved for at least five years. Bitwise said this kind of inactivity is squeezing available supply and slowing the return of buyers.
The report also claimed that Bitcoin still appears cheap compared to major US technology stocks. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is below its long-term average, while the Nasdaq 100’s stock price-to-book value is close to all-time highs, he said.
Price level still matters
Bitwise pointed out $78,000-$80,000 as the key area to watch, with the first major upper limit listed at $83,000-$85,000. It lists $73,000 as key support and $95,000 as the next upside target.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,460, down 4.7% in the past 24 hours, according to data from Coingecko.
Featured image from FXStreet, chart from TradingView
editing process for focuses on providing thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We adhere to strict sourcing standards and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of the content for readers.
