Bitcoin has fallen 22% from its May peak, with more than $12 billion leaving the network and investors locking in losses for 25 consecutive days. To many traders, that sounds like the bottom of the market.
However, according to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., the current market decline may not be the true market bottom.
That’s because the panic selling that marked the bottom of previous cycles has not arrived yet.
Five key indicators point to continued weakness
What’s remarkable about Adler’s warning is that it’s not based on a single metric.
Instead, five different market indicators, derivatives, realized caps, SOPR, miner behavior, and exchange flows all point to the same conclusion.
“The stress is there, but it’s not extreme yet,” he explained.
As an example, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has dropped from its historical average of 1.71 to 0.32. Meanwhile, the adjusted expense return ratio (aSOPR) has been below 1 for 13 consecutive days and currently stands at 0.987.
2/9 On the surface everything looks like the bottom.
MVRV Z-score decreased to 0.32. Overheating premium is gone. aSOPR has now been below 1 for 13 consecutive days, and the market is selling at a loss.
But that’s where the confusion comes from. Although it’s stressful… pic.twitter.com/JrMKw2AZVM
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr. (@AxelAdlerJr) June 13, 2026
Data from another four indicators shows:
- 91,000 $BTC It is moving to the exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.
- Over $119 million of stablecoins have left exchanges, reducing available purchasing power.
- The Puel Multiple (30DMA) is hovering at 0.73, indicating increasing stress among miners.
- Open interest has declined even as Bitcoin recovers from $60,000, suggesting the move is being driven by short covering rather than new demand.
This means that investors are selling Bitcoin at a loss. The problem, Adler says, is that the kind of panic selling that marked the bottom of previous cycles hasn’t arrived yet.
Why is $55,000 a major level?
Adler believes the biggest risk lies with Bitcoin miners.
He points out that Bitcoin’s price-to-miner revenue ratio has collapsed from 160 to 80. $BTC is currently trading approximately 21% below the difficulty bottom indicator.
8/9 And this is no longer just a spot issue.
Miner has entered the stress zone. The price to miner revenue collapsed from 160 to 80, and the price was 21% below the difficulty floor. Derivatives, on-chain, miners, flows – all of them are under pressure at the same time.
Local… pic.twitter.com/qw9rjRV1G2
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr. (@AxelAdlerJr) June 13, 2026
If the Puel multiple falls below 0.50 and Bitcoin falls below $55,000, miners could be forced to sell more of their holdings to cover costs.
Currently, the Puel multiplier is 0.73.
Historically, similar minor capitulation events helped form major market bottoms in both 2018 and 2022.
So far, Adler believes Bitcoin is showing signs of cooling off, but has not yet reached the kind of extreme fear and forced selling that typically occurs in the final stages of a bear market.
