Bitcoin has underperformed against other high-risk assets so far in 2026, raising concerns among investors that the price could fall further in the coming months. Supply factors, rather than risk sentiment, have weighed on the performance of major cryptocurrencies this year, according to market research from financial firm NYDIG. The report points out that if past market patterns repeat, a low cycle to around $38,000 could occur by October.
Bitcoin lags tech stocks, faces new cycle reset
Until now, Bitcoin has moved in conjunction with technology stocks, but in 2026 a significant divergence can be seen. While artificial intelligence-focused stocks posted strong gains, the crypto market led by Bitcoin experienced significant losses. At the time of the NYDIG report, Bitcoin was trading at $64,809, down nearly 30% year-to-date and nearly 50% below its October 2025 high of $126,080.
NYDIG, a financial services company specializing in Bitcoin products and research, said the economic downturn has reignited the debate over the often-mentioned four-year market cycle in the crypto world. The company highlighted similarities between the current recession and previous bear market periods in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Although its trajectory does not accurately reflect previous cycles, its timing and structure are compared among analysts.
NYDIG determined that Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance ranks among the worst-performing assets across major categories, and falls behind major fiat currencies such as U.S. Treasuries, silver, and the Swiss franc.
The report suggests that if the current economic downturn is similar to previous economic cycles, a further decline towards $38,000 to $39,000 is possible. However, NYDIG also noted that volatility in 2025 is at historic lows and this may not be as severe a correction as observed in past bear markets.
The NYDIG study noted that Bitcoin’s recent drawdowns “refocus the four-year cycle narrative, as the timing and structure increasingly resemble previous reset years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, even though its path does not exactly match those drawdowns.”
The evolving role of Bitcoin and the impact of new regulations
NYDIG reported that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold increased in the second quarter of 2026. Both assets experienced concerted declines, reflecting changes in investor behavior. Historically, Bitcoin has been compared to gold as “digital gold,” but in 2025, the connection between cryptocurrencies and U.S. technology stocks has strengthened.
In addition, NYDIG observed that other products also fell in the second quarter, eroding momentum in so-called “cheap trading,” a strategy in which investors seek assets that can hedge against falling fiat currencies.
Mini Dictionary: The CLARITY Act, a legislative proposal aimed at establishing clear regulation of the U.S. digital asset market structure. The passage is seen as a potentially transformative event for both Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
In a separate report, leading crypto asset management firm Bitwise noted that Bitcoin ended the second quarter of 2026 with the deepest and longest decline since the last bear market. However, the company believes that newly enacted crypto-friendly legislation and improving industry fundamentals could spark a recovery.
NYDIG highlighted that the passage of the US Market Structure CLARITY Act is an important development for the digital asset sector. While the law’s immediate price impact may be more pronounced on altcoins and crypto stocks, the broader regulatory clarity should benefit the entire industry, including Bitcoin, according to the report.
The NYDIG report emphasized that, “For Bitcoin, the direct price impact of CLARITY is not as large as for altcoins or crypto stocks, but the investment impact remains significant as a clearer U.S. market structure regime benefits the industry as a whole.”
