Bitcoin closes a candlestick below the 200-week moving average (200WMA) for the first time since June 2022, and this could determine the next price Action policy.
The most recent weekly close was $59,486, below the 200 WMA of $62,443. since then, Bitcoin is struggling under $60,000 The stock is currently trading about 53% below its all-time high of $126,000, set on October 6, 2025.
Track 200WMA. Approximately 1,400 days worth of price datahas been helping traders for a long time another From bear market to bull market. When Bitcoin falls below this level, it signals a change in the long-term trend. As a result, this recent collapse could dictate Bitcoin’s next price move.
Bitcoin’s 2022 cycle signals further decline
surrounding historical pattern Bitcoin We will provide a variety of data on what will happen next, especially on whether the crypto first stocks have finally found the bottom of the cycle or whether they are likely to plummet further.
Notably, the last time this breakdown occurred was in 2022. Specifically, in the second week of June 2022, the price closed at $20,552, while the moving average was near $22,300. The market then declined further, hitting a low of $16,500 in November 2022.
At this point, Bitcoin was trading at about 0.68x the 200WMA, down about 77% from its all-time high of about $69,000.
The price then remained below the moving average for 16 months before finally breaking above the moving average in October 2023. A similar path could unfold if the current support level breaks down.
of February 2026 low price $59,967 serves as the first support level to look at. If this fails, attention will shift to the realized price near $54,000, which could provide stronger support.
However, if Bitcoin follows the same pattern as in 2022 and reaches 0.68x the 200WMA again, the price could fall towards the $41,000 to $42,000 range before finding a bottom.
Reasons for optimism
However, other cycles are showing bullish data. For context, Bitcoin has only fallen below the 200 WMA four times: in 2015, 2018/2019, the March 2020 coronavirus crash, and June 2022.
What’s interesting is that three of those moves, specifically in 2015, 2018/2019, and March 2020, involved moves near market bottoms, followed by new highs within about 12 to 24 months. only 2022 will be even tougher. After the failure, it declined.
Michael Thaler, Chairman of Strategy, said: remains bullish, arguing that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom could be around $60,000. He believes that money is not leaving Bitcoin, but shifting to other areas. like artificial intelligence.
he estimate Approximately $400 billion moved to AI infrastructure. The strategy itself holds 843,706 BTC, but its average purchase price is around $75,000, so the position is currently sitting I’m at a loss. some background of his outlook.
Technically, Bitcoin is also showing some support. The price has recently been trading just above $57,802, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2022 low to October 2025 high move. This level often attracts buyers and can act as a tipping point.
What traders should focus on next
Bitcoin’s next move will depend on the movement around the 200 WMA in the coming weeks. A pullout above the $61,000 to $62,500 range would align with past cycles. like 2015, 2018, 2020, where The market has recovered after a period of fear.
If the price stay Below this level, chance long-term economic slump increase, similar to what happened In 2022. factor like ETF flowoptions market activity, and key price levels such as $59,967 and $54,000 play an important role. decide Will Bitcoin become stable or remain stable? move down.
