Bitcoin rose above $82,000 as oil prices fell amid a strong tailwind from the sudden and dramatic easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
data from crypto slate showed that BTC’s value rose more than 7% this week, extending a week-long rally after President Donald Trump suspended US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to CoinGlass data, more than $200 million was liquidated from short traders in the past 24 hours due to the rise in BTC prices.
This comes as reports of a possible U.S.-Iranian framework allay fears that the conflict will continue to disrupt one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Oil prices plunged on the news, with Brent crude falling 10% to $97 a barrel, effectively erasing a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up since late February. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reflected the selloff, dropping 9.82% to $88 per barrel.
Sudden melting of snow in the Strait of Hormuz
The shift in global trends began with President Trump’s decision to suspend Project Freedom, a US operation aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to stranded commercial ships.
President Trump said the pause would be short-lived while the United States tests whether it can reach a final deal with Iran.
The move marked a change in mood after weeks of military pressure over one of the world’s most important energy corridors, where transport restrictions added to instability in crude oil, refined products and overall Asian energy markets.
Meanwhile, the hiatus was followed by reports that the United States and Iran were working toward a memorandum of understanding aimed at halting the conflict and creating room for broader negotiations.
The proposed framework, led by Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on the US side, aims to normalize commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while paving the way for broader settlements.
In response to the news, President Trump wrote on Truth Social:
“Assuming Iran agrees to give what is agreed to, which is probably a long shot, the already legendary Epic Fury will come to an end and a highly effective blockade will open the Strait of Hormuz to everyone, including Iran.”
Notably, Tehran has also softened its public stance.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said transit through the Strait of Hormuz was safe, citing an end to the U.S. threat and new procedures for ships passing through the area. The Guard did not explain the measures in detail, but thanked the ship’s owner and captain for complying with Iranian regulations.
For the market, the immediate impact of these developments was felt in oil. Oil prices plunged as traders reduced war premiums following the Hormuz disruption.
This provided a clearer macro backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk assets, allaying fears that an energy shock due to falling oil prices would spur inflation, delaying the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and tightening financial conditions.
Bitcoin wins rescue bid as institutional investor demand grows
Bitcoin’s rally above $82,000 has put it back near the supply zone that traders have been eyeing since the market crash earlier this year, with the $80,000 to $85,000 range emerging as a key test for a pullback.
This zone is a combination of previous support, short-term profit taking, and new leveraged positioning. A successful passage through it could strengthen the market’s long-term structure, but another rejection would suggest that the rally remains dependent on weak macro easing rather than sustained spot demand.
Considering this, market experts believe that the current wave of institutional demand could push top cryptocurrencies out of range.
In particular, US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen renewed demand since early May, reinforcing the rebound through regulated investment channels as well as offshore leverage.
Since May 1, the fund has seen more than $1.6 billion in net inflows, with cumulative inflows of nearly $60 billion and assets under management of approximately $109 billion, according to SoSo Value data.
Meanwhile, ETF inflows are only part of the absorption story. Jamie Coutts, principal crypto analyst at Real Vision, said that increasingly the major marginal bids for Bitcoin are coming from corporate treasuries rather than ETFs.
Coutts said the ETF absorbs about 1,160 bitcoins per day, while the treasury firm led by Strategy manages about 1,834 bitcoins per day. He added that the strategy bought more than 50,000 bits of Bitcoin in April alone, and a breakout of the $80,000 to $85,000 range would impact the long-term trend structure.
Corporate bond purchases change the supply profile of the market, as companies that add Bitcoin to their balance sheets tend to remove the coin from liquid circulation for an extended period of time.
This could lead to a stronger rebound if spot demand increases, but it could also leave the market vulnerable if issuance slows or corporate funding becomes tight.
Andre Dragos, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said almost all of the positive inflows into Bitcoin over the past month have come from institutional investors. He said institutional demand totaled approximately 93,100 Bitcoins and more than offset on-chain selling pressure during the period.
Retail demand is also starting to recover, but remains a secondary sign. According to CryptoQuant data, the company’s 30-day retail demand index turned positive after several months of weakness, rising to 3.7% from a negative reading earlier this year.
This change suggests that small investors have returned to extend their selling in the first quarter.
For now, stronger support is coming from institutional investor accumulation, ETF inflows, and corporate financial demand.
Together, these buying sources helped push Bitcoin back above $80,000, allowing traders to more clearly test whether the rebound can extend beyond the macro relief rally.
Derivatives and options traders aim for further upside above $90,000
While spot demand provides a solid floor, the current velocity of Bitcoin’s movement is significantly increased by the derivatives market.
At major options exchange Deribit, call options, which are bullish bets on future price increases with strike prices above $82,000, accounted for most of the trading volume over the past 24 hours.
For context, call options with strike prices of $85,000 and $90,000 have attracted over $2.2 billion in open interest at the time of writing.
The sheer amount of leverage flowing into the system has some analysts raising red flags.
Joanne Wesson, CEO of quantitative firm Alpharaktal, pointed to the incredible accumulation of speculative capital. He pointed out:
“Bitcoin open interest has surpassed $50 billion, but we haven’t added CME yet.”
This accumulation of open interest is closely tied to technical upside targets, particularly the much-discussed “CME gap.”
Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange only trade on weekdays, so large weekend price movements create gaps in the charts that cannot be filled.
CryptoQuant analysts identify the $93,000 level as the next major upside magnet driven by the open gap.
The way CryptoQuant works, these gaps act as liquidity vacuums. When open interest spikes to extreme levels, kinetic energy builds up in the market that must eventually be released through a chain of liquidations and profit taking.
In other words, this $93,000 gap represents a historically illiquid zone, and price movements are often drawn to it as large leveraged positions are unwound and rebalanced.
However, analysts warn that if leverage continues to exceed actual spot buying, the market could face a sharp downward reset to wipe out late-starting long positions before the $93,000 milestone can be legitimately challenged.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
