October is displayed on the calendar and, accordingly, is usually the month where you will most smile on your Bitcoin (BTC) graphics.
Since 2013, statistics have been eloquent. October 10 Closed greens, only two red (2014 and 2018).
The following table provided by the Coinglass platform illustrates this historical behavior in Bitcoin prices.
This year, the Prelude arrives in September and moves in a near-neutral balance despite the last complicated week and episodes of strong volatility – 1.1% progress so far this month – and Expectations for a new Federal Reserve rate cut in October.
The loosest and most favorable financial policy cocktail will replace Bitcoin, which is at the heart of all eyes at the start of the fourth quarter.
Clean Cleaning Closure
The final stretch in September was marked by an amendment that led Bitcoin to lose 110,000 US dollars It has already registered a liquidation of approximately $1,000 million in derivatives, a classic “shake” of overpositions we have seen in previous cycles.
The following image shows what Bitcoin has been doing over the last 30 days.
At the same time, as Cryptootics explained, a long-term on-chain movement was observed towards an exchange that would increase sales pressure and explain some of the retreat.
In parallel, the front of the US ETF spot cut the negative streak on September 24 with a US$241 million net ticket led by iShares Bitcoin Trust (BlackRock), and Stablecoins offers have returned to its historic maximum. In other words: Some markets benefit, but ecosystem liquidity continues to maintain the load.
October: Seasonality, Prices, Liquidity
Seasonal guidelines do not guarantee anything, they guarantee a guide. October was the most historically rising month for BTC in the last decade. Additionally, this year we arrive with a macro background that can enhance that inertia. The Fed began its cut cycle at 25 base points in September, with markets that include forecast platforms such as Polymarket pointing to the second cut in October.
As our encryption explains, lower fees reduce the cost of money, improve risk trends, and are usually converted into flows to rare assets such as Bitcoin.
Below is a screenshot of the Polymarket platform at the time of this publication. High expectations for interest rate reductions in the US During the month you are about to start:
It will be added to that expectation Systematic liquidity and weakening of dollars:DXY index accumulates two digits in 2025. This is historically a tail wind accompanied by gold material, gold and increasingly frequent rebounds of BTC.
It is no coincidence that large investment banks such as Deutsche Bank predict an increase in the role of digital currency in private reserves and ultimately the official balance sheet, while highlighting the correlation between Bitcoin’s “maturity” within their portfolios and performance with gold.
There are also clear indications on the part of the system in the fourth quarter. Recently, it was known that Morgan Stanley will integrate BTC sales into the platform from 2026, strengthening the trend of not being confined to passive exposure products.
In ETF Field, BlackRock recorded “iShares bitcoin Premium Inome ETF” in Delaware. Option overlay To generate performance: proof that the world’s largest manager continues to expand the “Bitcoin family.”
And, in terms of corporate terms, the fusion of two publicly contributing BTC accumulators – Strive and Semler Scientific combined the 10,906 BTC Treasury, which strengthens the larger scale phenomenon.
Michael Saylor, a reference to this “BTC’s Treasury” paper, integrates dynamics with difficult facts. ETFs, businesses and governments will absorb much more offers than miners who have been produced in half of 2024.
Short-term mixed signal, background bias
Get to the market.”uptober” In the very short term, technical indicators and on-chain that invite prudence. Signatures such as GlassNode explained in September the pattern of “buying rumors, selling news” after the initial cuts in interest rates.
but, Mid-term images retain bullish flavour: Gain offers are maintained widely above long term average. The standard deviation band suggests that recent set folds are healthy among the trends of not running out of fuel. Also, as the stibcoin cycle expands towards regulated products, there is a tendency for the market to have a positive impact on prices as it consumes volatility events.
Commenting with Cryptootics, HF Markets analyst Emanuel Juárez commented. «In the short term, the $107,221 level is important as support (for Bitcoin). If maintained above, the upward trend remains intact, achieving its $117,875 target, and its rupture can make way for a new historic maximum ».
Also, analyst Juan Rodríguez – conductor of YouTube channel «Bitcoin y Criptos» — has argued that recent adjustments “clean” leverage excesses and liquidity can reinvigorate demand in the fourth quarter.
And, as stated by the head of this publication, statistics support bullies: October is Bitcoin month.
In that frame, The basic scenario for the start of the fourth quarter is bullish bias Increased probability that Bitcoin will challenge historic maximums between October and December.
That’s not a promise. This is the result of seasonality, fluidity, and convergence of institutional adoption. The investor’s task is, as always, to isolate signal noise. It involves pursuing candles, monitoring support, prioritizing flowers, fees, and metrics that provide stable things. Once the story is repeated, October can once again honor its fame.
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