Bitcoin
At the time of writing, BTC changed hands for around $107,000 for just 2% of the month, according to Coindesk data. This is the smallest monthly increase since last July.
Dour’s price action appears to be confusing as US Spot Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) continue to have strong intakes and net inflows of $3.9 billion over consecutive weeks. Furthermore, the recruitment of the Ministry of Corporate Finance continues at a vigorous pace worldwide.
Whale sales
However, one important metric called accumulation propensity score that breaks down on-chain data procured from GlassNode, especially the behavior of different wallet cohorts, does not draw a rosy picture.
The metric measures the relative intensity of accumulation in each cohort based on the size of the entity and the amount of BTC obtained over the past 15 days. A value close to 1 suggests that participants in that cohort are accumulating coins, while the value is close to a signal distribution of 0. Entities such as exchanges and miners are excluded from this calculation.
Currently, holders with a BTC balance of 10-10,000 are in accumulation mode, but their actions fluctuate between buying and selling, indicating that they are more conscious traders rather than consistent buyers and sellers. Conversely, whales with more than 10,000 btc are slightly leaning towards distribution of shares, but small holders are also net sellers.
Integration phase
Between January and April 2025, all cohorts were primarily sold, but accumulation resumed after Bitcoin approached the $76,000 level in April. It appears that the assets have now entered a separate consolidation phase.
GlassNode suggests in its latest Week On-Chain report that profitable activities are beginning to slow down. The realised profits reached $650 billion in this cycle, compared to $550 billion in the previous cycle. GlassNode attributes this trend to market cooldowns, further highlighting the ongoing integration period.