The Bitcoin market has turned green again in recent weeks, pushing the price above $82,000, the highest since February 2026. But several analysts suggest it’s not yet time to pop the champagne.
According to the latest report from on-chain analytics company Glassnode, published yesterday, May 13, 2026, and authored by Chris Beamish, CryptoVizArt, and Antoine Colpaert. Bitcoin is the star of what they define as a “democracy without belief.”
While digital asset prices have shown enviable resilience, data suggests that: The fuel driving this rally doesn’t yet have the momentum of the great bull markets of the past.
The chart below shows the evolution of Bitcoin’s price over the past 7 days. As of this writing, the digital currency is trading at $79,300.
The main facts are undeniable. Bitcoin has managed to shake off the dust after volatility at the beginning of the year. Glassnode’s report highlights that the currency has “recovered above $80,000 thanks to improved capital inflows into ETFs and spot demand.” This recovery is not the result of chance, but is due to changing trends in U.S. institutional instruments.
After months of doubt, Capital inflows into spot ETFs are “clearly positive again, indicating that institutional demand is on the rise again.”. This trend was the main trigger for the price to rebound from the important $60,000 support reached in early February 2026.
But it’s not just investment funds that are making a difference. Glassnode focuses on a related technical indicator: Coinbase Spot Volume Delta.
This indicator measures the difference between buy and sell volumes in the spot market. The report notes that this delta has become “significantly positive over the past two weeks” and shows that: There are aggressive buyers ～People who buy at the current market price without waiting for the price to fall～ absorb available supply.
The strength of activity on Coinbase also coincides with a rebound in ETF inflows, indicating new participation from US-based institutional investors.
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company.
One of the most interesting aspects of the report is how Glassnode uses Relative Unrealized Loss (PRP) to gauge the pulse of investor sentiment. This metric calculates how much money Bitcoin holders are losing “on paper” compared to their market capitalization.
During the correction period in February 2026, PRP peaked at 25%. This is a level that Glassnode describes as “severe stress.” But the return to $80,000 compressed that number to 8%. Analysts say the change “replaces the prevailing sense of fear with uncertainty rather than surrender.”
This is essential to understanding where we are. The market is no longer panicking, but I still don’t fully believe that this trend is unstoppable.. In this regard, Glasnod makes a historical observation. “If $60,000 proves to be a cycle minimum, this bear market will be the least pronounced in history,” he said, registering fear but not complete capitulation from investors, which usually marks the final trough.
A Matter of Belief Where is Bitcoin’s big capital?
This is where Glassnode comes into play. To know if we are in a “dead cat bounce” or the beginning of a “to the moon” rally, we need to look at the 30-day net position change in realized capital. This indicator tracks how much real money is moving in and out of the Bitcoin network each month.
This number has increased to $2.8 billion per month, which, while constructive, pales in comparison to previous cycles.
During the expansion period from 2023 to 2025, this indicator consistently exceeded $10 billion. As such, the report warns, “While current numbers are encouraging, they remain well below that baseline, suggesting that capital inflows supporting this recovery lack the momentum seen at comparable turning points.” In short: Bitcoin is rising, but there is less “new” money than before.
Future support and resistance for Bitcoin
For traders looking for specific levels, Glassnode uses age realized prices to map the battlefield.
Immediate support is $76,900. This is the average acquisition cost for people who bought in the last 30 days. If Bitcoin falls below this level, recent investors could suffer losses and start selling out of fear.
Beyond the major resistance level, a major wall detected by Glassnode is located at $86,900. This area represents people’s accumulated purchase prices from November 2025 to February 2026. As Bitcoin approaches that price, those holders who have been losing money for months now face “increased incentives to distribute their investments” to at least avoid losing money.
Macroeconomic labyrinth
This analysis does not ignore the issue of macroeconomics. Glassnode points out that The outlook “remains caught between slowing growth and inflation that has not fully subsided.”. High U.S. Treasury yields and a strong dollar have increased risk appetite.
We should also not forget that the war in Iran has been active since February 28, and since then the Strait of Hormuz (a key sea route for global oil production) has been closed, which is increasing inflationary pressures globally.
CriptoNoticias reported this week that US inflation was higher than expected. Relatedly, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (FED) cutting interest rates decreases. In any case, we will have to wait and see what kind of monetary policy will be adopted by the organization led by Kevin Warsh, a man clearly aligned with Donald Trump’s economic vision.
A market that is rebuilding trust
Glassnode’s report ends with a touch of structural realism. Bitcoin is stronger today than it was three months ago, but its recovery has so far been a slow recovery rather than an explosive euphoria. “Bitcoin’s recovery continues to strengthen internally,” he said at the close, highlighting demand. spot and institutional benefits.
However, the final verdict is one of expected cautiousness. “This makes the current bull market more like a structurally supported recovery than a fully confirmed momentum break.”
Bitcoin has returned to the high supply zone above $80,000. The current inertia is not enough to reliably cross that desert and look for prices above $100,000 again. The market will need “deeper capital turnover” and new catalysts to restore lost confidence to investors.
