Bitcoin went up again The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit $73,000 from a single-digit panic low, and with that recovery came the familiar chorus of bottoms. The next bridge is approaching. And the cycle is poised to turn bullish again. However, one analyst for X is not buying X, and his reasoning is based on one of the most consistent patterns in Bitcoin price history.
Why Rising Bullish Sentiment Could Lead to More Bearishness
The psychology of Bitcoin Now it is slowly coming back to strength. This reflects recent price movements. However, optimism is gradually returning across social media and the trading world, according to cryptocurrency analyst Max. It’s a warning sign.
Max, who Shared your views on X. The resurgence of bullish sentiment at this point along with the multi-cycle Bitcoin chart suggests that this is exactly what investors should be paying attention to. “When sentiment slowly begins to turn bullish again, it is usually a sign that the bottom has not yet been reached,” he wrote.
Max pointed out that recent talk of a cycle bottom already forming, along with predictions of a historic rally, reflect the sentiment conditions that always precede further downside moves. Simply put, if the crowd becomes optimistic too early, it could mean that the market has not yet completed its correction phase.
This outlook is based on the fact that the Bitcoin price has not yet created structural conditions that would confirm a historically low cycle. He identifies three specific cyclical low signals that are currently absent from Bitcoin charts: total capitulation, repeated low sweeps, and confirmed changes in market structure over a weekly period.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @_ctm_crypto on X
Due to cycle timing, October hit the bottom.
The most interesting part of this technical outlook is the cycle comparison that Max overlays on Bitcoin’s entire price history. Previous Bitcoin Cycle Show a consistent rhythm An extended phase of accumulation and expansion followed by lengthy corrections.
From the cycle peaks in 2013, 2018, and 2021, Bitcoin had to decline for approximately 365 days to reach its final low. Interestingly, each cycle is characterized by a smaller decline compared to the previous cycle. The 2013 high is an 87% decline in 427 days, the 2018 high is an 83% decline in 365 days, and the 2021 high is a correction of about 75% in 365 days.
The projected path suggests that a similar structure is still underway in the current cycle after the October 2025 peak. Max’s chart predicts that structure at the top of the 2025 cycle, targeting October 2026. to the bottom window where possibleThe estimated price is $40,000.
This bottom would likely be consistent with the duration and magnitude of the previous bearish phase, rather than the much faster recovery some market participants are expecting. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $74,590, up 5.4% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image by Dall.E, chart by TradingView.com
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