In recent weeks, Bitcoin sentiment has been most bullish when prices were at their highest and most bearish just when they were most tense, according to Santiment data covering May 21 to June 4.
The bullish peak was reached on May 22nd, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high near $78,000. The most bearish moment occurred on June 3rd, when Bitcoin was near its lows. Sentiment is not a timing tool, but peaks of confidence at highs and peaks of fear at lows are the opposite of normal trading profits.
Bitcoin has recently been trading around $62,400, down about 20% from its highs in late May. Along with this, a crack appeared in the risk structure.
Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) companies that drove global stock prices to record highs this year stalled after Broadcom’s semiconductor forecast came in worse than expected. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell 4.7%, and the won and Indonesian rupiah have fallen to multi-year lows as capital flees emerging Asia.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF ended a 13-day streak of $4.4 billion in outflows on Thursday with just $3.05 million in inflows. On the same day, the Spot Ether ETF ended its streak of 17 parallel sessions at $19.3 million. Both numbers are too small compared to the streak they ended to call it a regime change.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday will be a dual catalyst. A weak outlook could revive expectations for Fed rate cuts under new Chairman Kevin Warsh and likely lead to the repurchase of risky assets, while a positive outlook could lead to an extension of the unwind.
And keep an eye on how Bitcoin performs with the $60,000 round number if tested before the data arrives. Be alert!
More information: For an analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Today’s Crypto Market. For a comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
what is trending
- Zcash plummets 38% as Shielded Labs reveals critical bug that went undetected for 4 years (CoinDesk): Shielded Labs publishes detailed disclosure on X, revealing currently embedded vulnerabilities. This vulnerability could allow an attacker to create an unlimited number of counterfeit ZEC tokens completely undetected.
- JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi launch blockchain offensive with shared tokenization network (CoinDesk): Major American banks plan to build a shared tokenization deposit network by early 2027 to protect deposits from threats posed by stablecoins.
- Bitcoin and Ether ETFs end record-breaking multi-billion dollar outflow streak (CoinDesk): The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of $3.05 million on Wednesday after 13 consecutive redemption sessions totaling approximately $4.4 billion, while the Ether ETF ended its 17-day outflow streak with all $19.3 million flowing into BlackRock’s ETHA.
- U.S. and Iran make little progress in talks after weeks of clashes (Bloomberg): The U.S. and Iran made little progress this week in talks over an interim peace deal, the worst clashes between the two sides since a ceasefire began in April, and fighting continues in Lebanon.
today’s signal
This chart shows the weekly change in Bitcoin market capitalization compared to an index of altcoins excluding the top 10 tokens.
Bitcoin has been underperforming for weeks as altcoin metrics strengthen, with the ratio recently testing resistance levels that have been in place for more than a year.
If zcash, hyperliquid, and near prices continue to fall, they may fall further.
