Bitcoin soared above $65,000 earlier today, reversing weeks of intense selling pressure, after a sudden diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran lifted a large geopolitical cloud hanging over global financial markets.
data from crypto slate The flagship digital asset rose more than 3% to $65,940, but has since rebounded slightly and is seen at $65,668 at the time of writing. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has also risen to $1,724 at the time of writing.
The market’s turnaround followed President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement that a peace deal had been reached to end the three-month-long conflict in the Middle East.
The agreement includes the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass.
The framework for the peace agreement will be formalized at an official signing ceremony in Switzerland on June 19, brokered by Pakistan.
Confirming the resolution, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said:
“After intensive consultations, I am pleased to announce that a peace agreement has been reached between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both sides have declared an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
Once confirmed, the announcement quickly spread across asset classes. Oil prices fell, stock futures rose and crypto markets recovered as traders unwinded some of the war premiums accumulated since the conflict began in late February.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell nearly 5% to hover around $80 per barrel, while Brent crude fell below $84, according to data from oilprice.com. Both benchmarks soared above $110 early in the conflict as traders priced in the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy flows.
The drop in oil prices has eased fears that energy shocks could once again hurt inflation and force central banks to continue tightening policy for an extended period of time. This shift has given risk assets, including Bitcoin, room to rebound.
Still, the recovery remains fragile. Although the Iran deal removes some immediate macro stressors, market attention has returned to the Federal Reserve, where newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold his first policy meeting this week.
Selling pressure begins to ease
Bitcoin’s rally is not solely driven by macro bailouts, as on-chain and capital flow data suggests that some of the forced selling that weighed on the market earlier this month is starting to subside.
The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $316 million in outflows last week, according to SoSoValue data, marking a notable slowdown after more than $5 billion left the fund over the past four weeks.
That easing became more apparent last Friday, when the fund recorded net inflows of $85 million, its largest single-day positive inflow in more than three weeks.
This reversal suggests that Wall Street’s long-term aggressive unwinding of Bitcoin exposure may have reached a temporary depletion point.
CryptoQuant data shows a similar shift occurring among large holders. The company said whale selling pressure has slowed as major wallets appear to be absorbing supply near recent lows.
Its exchange whale ratio rose to 62.3% during the drawdown, indicating that large holders accounted for a larger share of trading activity as Bitcoin neared the bottom of its recent range.
This change was followed by a wave of withdrawals from trading venues. According to CryptoQuant, over 11,400 BTC, worth approximately $750 million at current prices, was moved from the exchange to cold storage. By June 14th, the total supply of wallets containing at least 100 BTC had reversed the 12-day decline.
These signals suggest that Bitcoin has moved away from the most aggressive phase of forced sales and into a more balanced structure.
This is important because the recent decline was further fueled by reduced liquidity, ETF outflows, and derivative positions. Once these pressures start to ease and the macro situation improves, relief efforts could move forward rapidly.
Bitcoin needs to turn relief into demand
For Bitcoin, the next few sessions will tell whether today’s moves signal the beginning of a broader recovery or another short-term stable rally.
Derivatives markets could help determine that outcome.
Cryptocurrency research firm 10X Research said Bitcoin’s previous dip below $70,000 triggered forced selling from options dealers who had shorted Gamma around that level. As prices fell, dealers had to sell more of the underlying assets to hedge their exposure, increasing downward pressure.
Its positioning has now moved lower. According to the company, the largest negative gamma strike on the board (equivalent to approximately $1.8 billion) is currently close to Bitcoin’s current spot price.
The setup is bidirectional. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its current levels, dealer hedging could add new pressure.
However, if the market rises further, the same mechanisms that exacerbated the decline could force dealers to buy, reinforcing the rebound.
This signal is particularly important as the implied volatility across major crypto assets is lower than the realized volatility. In effect, the options market is pricing in less price movement than Bitcoin’s recent price movement.
That leaves the market vulnerable to a sharp rally if this week’s macro events spook traders.
The $65,000 level is the line to watch for the time being. If Bitcoin can sustain above that area and push towards $68,000-$70,000 due to rising spot demand and improving ETF flows, the market will have a stronger chance of a permanent rebound.
However, a return below $62,000 will weaken the setup and bring the $60,000 area back into focus.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
