We score books on the board every day, and we keep the receipts. Every pick that gets a grade goes into a ledger, and today that ledger crossed 93 scored picks. Here is what those 93 are actually worth.
The median pick sits at 0.24x.
That number needs translating. If you had put one unit into the median pick at its entry price, it would be worth 0.24 units now. Not a drawdown you trade around. Three quarters of the position, gone.
That is the honest center of the board’s own record. Not the highlight reel. The ledger.
The numbers
93 picks scored, each tracked from the moment the board graded it. Current multiples, straight from the run we did this morning:
| Where the pick sits now | Picks | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Above entry | 13 | 14% |
| At 1.3x or better | 8 | 9% |
| At 2x or better | 5 | 5% |
| Below half the entry price | 65 | 70% |
| Below a tenth of entry | 22 | 24% |
The bands overlap. The 13 above entry include the 8 at 1.3x, and those include the 5 at 2x. No pick in the file sits at 5x.
One more way to read it. Put one unit into every one of the 93 picks, same stake each time. That is 93 units in. The whole book is worth about 48 units this morning. Spread across everything the board graded, you keep a little over half.
The best pick in the file is at 4.7x. The worst sits at 0.003x. A record this wide is not a coin-flip record. It is a record where almost everything dies and the few survivors carry the math. Problem is, at 93 picks the survivors have not carried it far enough yet.
Why this happened anyway
The board’s picks are not launch snipes. The median entry market cap across the 93 is about 25,000 dollars, ranging from 7,000 to 620,000. By the time a coin reaches 25,000, most of the churn is already behind it. Of the wider launch record we track, 2,852 launches in total, 62 percent of the 1,469 with a full six-hour trace peaked inside their first five minutes. Only 25 percent of those launches ever touched 5,000, and 16 percent reached 10,000.
So a graded pick has already cleared hurdles that kill most launches. The entry point sits in the band where the survivors are. And still, 70 percent of the 93 sit below half their entry.
Clean book, scored, past the launch churn. Most of them bled out anyway. The grade filters the quality of what is in the file. It does not bend the outcome.
What a reader should take from this
Do not read a grade as a green light. The record says so directly: 85 of 93 scored picks sit below 1.3x, and 80 of the 93 are at or below their entry price on the current read. A high score is a statement about the book, the holders, the pool, the bots. It states nothing about the next hour.
The other honest limit: we cannot yet tell you the grade is worth anything. We do not have a matched set of unscored coins at similar market caps tracked the same way. Until that comparison exists, the fair claim is small. Graded picks mostly bleed. A small share run. That is what 93 data points say and nothing more.
If you use the board, use it as a screen. It tells you which coins have a clean enough book to be worth your attention, then the PumpCheck page tells you what is actually in the pool before you touch anything. Neither one tells you the trade works. Only the ledger can say what the ledger says, which is why we publish it.
We wrote earlier about where coins on this board tend to die, in the stall band between 400,000 and 1.4 million. Today’s record is the same story from the other end: the base rate is harsh, and grading does not exempt anyone from it.
Method
The sample is 93 picks graded by the firememecoins.com board, tracked from the moment each was scored. The multiple for each pick is its current market cap divided by its market cap at scoring, pulled fresh for this post. Not simulated exits, no fees, no slippage, just where each pick stands as of this morning. Holds of different lengths are mixed together: early picks have had weeks to bleed or run, recent ones hours, so the median blends windows that are not equal. We measured what the coins did after the board scored them. We did not measure what ungraded coins did, so nothing here proves the grade helps or hurts. No predictions, no targets, no calls. 93 picks is a real sample and a small one. The post we write at 500 picks may say something different, and when it does we will say so.
