Analysts at virtual currency exchange Bybit emphasize the factors behind Bitcoin’s rise ($BTC) It was the worst single-week decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022. The report said the decline was not caused by random panic in the market, but was the result of a structural collapse that had been building for several weeks.
As reported in the Bybit Options Weekly Review, multiple forces are hitting at the same time: strong U.S. jobs numbers, record outflows from Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and strategies challenging the “never sell” strategy. $BTC” story.
$BTC Technical breakdown of rejection signals
For one week until June 8th, $BTC It fell from $73,760 to $59,130 for the first time since October 2024. A wave of buy-in and short-covering quickly pushed the asset’s price above $61,000, but the precipitous drop signaled a technical failure brewing behind the scenes.
Ether’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 12.78, the most extreme oversold in history. At the same time, Bitcoin’s RSI also fell to 15.45.
Taken together, this is the most oversold signal this cycle has produced, indicating a market-wide capitulation event. These movements indicate that investors are ignoring the price and engaging in panic selling. Readings at these levels historically precede a technical pullback, but do not confirm that a bottom is in.
No bullish reversal confirmed
In the options market, the Deribit Volatility Index (DVOL) soared from a historic low of around 35 to around 55 as put options took delivery after a technical failure was confirmed. DVOL measures the 30-day expected annual implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum options. This indicator provides real-time, forward-looking analysis of expected price movements, overall fear and greed, and market uncertainty.
The jump from 35 to 55 was a double tailwind for downside traders: lower prices and higher implied volatility. The indicator has now retreated from its spike and is hovering around 48. This indicates that the panic-induced volume expansion is waning and the initial shock is being absorbed.
You may also like:
- $BTC, $ETH, $XRP Progress in jeopardy as President Trump condemns Israel’s latest attacks
- Ripple ($XRP) Funds continue to defy crypto ETF downtrend with new inflows
- Bitcoin nears potential bottom, but demand conditions remain unfavorable: CryptoQuant
On the macroeconomic front, concerns about interest rate hikes have reignited due to strong US employment statistics. The current strength of the labor market rules out a near-term dovish turn, and analysts say any positive employment record will be negative for risk assets that factor in expectations for rate cuts.
Also, 32 units of Strategy were sold. $BTC At $2.5 million, it broke the “never sell” mantra that had given holders structural security. Although the company has resumed buying, investors still seem concerned about systemic signals behind the selling.
Bybit concluded by clarifying that: $BTC and $ETH Although the situation is extremely oversold, the market has not confirmed a reversal. ETF outflows need to stabilize and the macro situation needs to be resolved before a positive outlook is guaranteed.
