Putting real-world investments on-chain, a process called tokenization, is moving from testing to everyday business.
Citi’s new report, “Tokenization 2030: Wall Street On-Chain,” shared with CoinDesk ahead of Proof of Talk in Paris, shows that the global market for these digital investments currently stands at just $17 billion.
However, Citi’s baseline forecast is that this market will grow to $5.5 trillion by 2030. Depending on how quickly adoption occurs, the amount could range anywhere from a low-end estimate of $2.7 trillion to a bullish estimate of $8.2 trillion, Citi said.
As the report points out, this is a major turning point. “We are witnessing a major shift in the total financial power of the United States and the world’s reserve currency,” Citi said in the report. “This will be a turning point when DTCC and NYSE incorporate tokenization into their capital markets.”
According to Citi, three major changes are driving this multitrillion-dollar movement.
First, the traditional companies that run the world’s stock markets are incorporating this technology directly into their regular trading systems.
In early May, Wall Street giant Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced that it would begin limited production trading of tokenized securities in July, with a broader launch of its platform scheduled for October. Nasdaq is working on a framework for companies to issue blockchain-based shares, which could begin as early as 2027. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, also plans to tokenize its stock.
Nasdaq also received regulatory approval to allow the issuance and trading of certain shares in this digital on-chain format.
Second, the rise of trusted digital cash provides the missing piece to settle these transactions instantly. Standard stablecoins are expected to grow to a $1.9 trillion market by 2030, as they work with digital bank deposits to enable the simultaneous exchange of assets and cash. The report predicts that stablecoin growth alone could create about $1 trillion in new demand for U.S. government bonds, as companies issuing stablecoins back their digital cash with these physical bonds.
Third, government rules are becoming clearer, with key parts of the U.S. Digital Assets Act moving forward for a vote in the U.S. Senate. On May 14, the Senate Banking Committee managed to end a four-month stalemate with bipartisan approval of 15-9, moving the Transparency Act forward to its next stage.
Citi’s report notes that the growth they predict will occur in mainstream public markets, such as U.S. stocks and government bonds, rather than private markets, which are difficult to trade and slow to change.
Citi assumes that by 2030, 10% of the US Treasury bill market and 3% of the US public equity market will be tokenized. If just 10% of everyday investors in the U.S. switched to these new digital trading platforms, it would create $2.6 trillion in demand for digital stocks.
Meanwhile, complex sectors such as private credit and private equity are expected to reach a much smaller $100 billion each globally by 2030.
Citi noted that this change will not happen overnight, and instead said the old and new financial systems will need to operate in parallel for some time.
The report compares this to how highways have adopted electronic toll tags like E-ZPass. Toll roads did not become fully automated overnight. Instead, states built wide roads with parallel lanes for both cash and self-driving drivers, adding extra cost and disruption before everyone eventually switched to fully automated systems.
Ultimately, this new setup provides significant advantages for the “structural orchestrator.” These are certain large banks and investment companies that control both the physical assets and the digital cash rails used to pay for them, allowing them to process the entire transaction within their own networks.
