As of Friday, May 29th, Bitcoin was trading around USD 73,500, about 10% below the high of USD 80,000 reached at the beginning of the month. Although the price remains above $70,000, new data from CryptoQuant suggests that one of the most used indicators to measure bullish strength may actually be reflecting a decline in buying participation.
The company warns that the market is more fragile than it appears on the surface. Currently, 15.8 million BTC is listed as supply in the hands of long-term holders, but this number does not necessarily speak to confidence, but rather to slower and slower trading volumes. CryptoQuant estimates that the supply of short-term holders has decreased by approximately 2.2 million BTC since December.;Of this total, approximately 900,000 BTC comes from Coinbase’s reserves that have exceeded the 155-day threshold to move into the long-term category. In other words, many coins simply stopped moving.
This cooling is also observed in large portfolios. Whale balances, defined as wallets between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, will record the fastest year-over-year decline in 2026Meanwhile, as shown by CriptoNoticias, the monthly growth rate has remained close to zero since February. In parallel, the so-called dolphins between 100 and 1,000 BTC have also shown a noticeable slowdown after reaching a maximum of 970,000 BTC in October 2025, when monthly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.4 billion. This report identifies one of the clearest signs of institutional demand in this cohort.
Other indicators support the same view. Glassnode said spot demand has weakened and ETF inflows have fallen from previous peaks, with capital flows still insufficient to sustain long-term gains above near $78,000 on a cost basis. Furthermore, as shown in the following graph, the realized profit/loss ratio is 1.56. Indicates that investors continue to realize more profits than lossesbut the strength is moderate. This level remains below the 2-5 range typically associated with the early stages of historically strong bull markets, suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent rally still lacks the confidence and new capital inflows needed to support a sustained rally.
The same goes for prediction market movements. For the May 30th BTC closing price Polymarket contract, the probability of the price ending between $72,000 and $76,000 is approximately 84%. Despite these signs, CryptoQuant does not present any imminent crash scenarios. The company clarifies that the observed changes primarily correspond to gradual changes in the behavior of market participants. The main message of this report is that price trends alone are not enough to assess the actual health of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Looking ahead to the coming weeks, market attention will be focused on Bitcoin’s ability to attract new capital flows. For CryptoQuant, the continuation of the bullish cycle will largely depend on the emergence of buyers who can absorb existing supply and stimulate network activity. If demand manages to recover, fundamentals could reinforce the positive trends that have characterized recent months. On the other hand, if the slowdown observed in whales, ETFs, and other large institutional investors continues; The market may enter a longer consolidation phase characterized by horizontal movements and decreasing buying intensity. Rather than predicting an immediate change in trends, this data is a warning. Bitcoin’s future performance will depend not only on maintaining high prices, but also on restoring the influx of new participants that has historically driven the strongest phases of bull markets.
