Bitcoin’s recent fall below USD 60,000 has once again raised concerns about the possibility of the current bearish cycle coming to an end. According to CryptoQuant analysis, the cryptocurrency has managed to partially recover and is once again trading around USD 62,000, but market trends continue to show signs of vulnerability.
For Julio Moreno, the firm’s head of research, one of the most important levels to watch is the so-called “realized price,” which is currently around $53,600. This indicator reflects the average purchase cost of all Bitcoins in circulation. And in previous bear cycles, it has served as an important reference point for identifying support zones and possible temporary bottoms in the market.
The report clarified that this level should not be interpreted as a precise target, but rather as a historical reference that marked key moments of significant correction in the past. But he warned that In the current situation, it is not yet confirmed that Bitcoin has found a bottom.especially because of the weakness shown by some demand indicators.
One of the most concerning data for CryptoQuant is the sharp contraction in total Bitcoin demand over the past week, which fell by approximately 652,000 BTC. This is the biggest weekly decline since January 2022. This decline was caused by the unwinding of long positions and increased spot selling in the derivatives market after the price broke through the psychological level of $60,000.
Looking at the underlying trends, the outlook does not improve. According to the company, The annual growth rate of apparent demand is already negative and falling It is below the moving average for the first time since February 2024. In other words, there are fewer buyers now than there were a year ago, and one of the most important supports for a sustained recovery has weakened.
Added to this is the trend of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which was one of the main drivers of institutional demand for most of 2024 and 2025. However, its momentum has slowed significantly. Rather than absorbing selling pressure, ETFs will contribute to increasing the supply available in the market todayThis reflects a decline in the exposure of some institutional investors. For the company, the change signals one of the market’s hottest sources of demand is cooling.
Apartment may be close but not confirmed
While Bitcoin has accumulated nearly a 50% correction since its historic high in October 2025, CryptoQuant believes: The real surrender has not happened yet.. Over the past 30 days, investors have materialized losses of 187,000 BTC, which is a significant number, but still a long way from the much larger episodes of stress like the 400,000 BTC recorded in February 2026 when Bitcoin first lost $60,000, or the more than 1.2 million BTC during the 2022 FTX crisis.
This detail suggests that the report has yet to see a major panic exit, something that historically typically appears near the true low of a bear cycle. Therefore, while the $53,600 level looks like a historically attractive valuation zone, No final confirmation of floors yet.
The big unknown is not just whether Bitcoin will reach USD 53,600, but what a drop to that level would mean. If realized prices once again act as support, it could be interpreted as evidence that the market still has a strong investor base to accumulate during downturns.
However, if an asset crosses that threshold without a clear demand response, the message is different. This will reflect that even the network’s average acquisition cost is no longer sufficient to suppress selling pressure. In that scenario, markets would face a new phase of uncertainty, but investors will be looking for signs that the bear cycle has finally reached its limit.
