Bitcoin (BTC) price crossed the 76,000 barrier yesterday afternoon, April 20, 2026, marking a recovery of more than 20% since bottoming out at $60,000 on February 5. This increase will push asset prices slightly above average acquisition costs for buyers who entered the market at least 30 days ago and up to 90 days ago. This cost is $74,000.
According to investment firm Grayscale, the move A new bullish cycle begins for Bitcoin as the need for investors to liquidate their positions decreases..
The chart below shows two lines: the current price (orange) and the realized price of the coin that has moved over the past 1-3 months (blue dots). When the current price exceeds the realized price, as is happening now, the market comes out of the “unrealized loss” situation and a profit is made.
This trend change is based on the behavior of buyers who purchased the currency in the past 90 days. “Analysts typically focus on a measure called the ‘realized price,’ or the weighted average price at which a coin moves on-chain,” Grayscale explains. This indicator reflects the actual value invested in the market, unlike the current trading price, which only shows the last trade made.
In this context, the company emphasizes the importance of capital recovery. Restored confidence among people who bought near previous highs. Because the market price is higher than the realized price, investors are exposed to an unrealized loss situation where the value of the asset is less than what they originally paid for it.
Moving into profitable areas We see grayscale as a catalyst for long-term price increases.. “If Bitcoin price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers will take profits, which could be an indicator of the first phase of a bull market,” the report details. The company said that although Bitcoin is below its October high, the fact that the price is above the recent buy point indicates that the market has bottomed in the $65,000 to $70,000 range.
However, Grayscale’s interpretation of $74,000 as a solid bottom is not necessarily support, but rather a conflict zone that ignores investors’ psychological factors. There are potential risks associated with survival bias; That’s because those who endured the drop to $63,000 can view the current rally as an “exit.” After months of financial stress, you can get your money back without any losses.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces the challenge of absorbing a large supply of people willing to sell at breakeven. According to a report by CriptoNoticias, the asset needs to overcome the $76,000 resistance to consolidate the bullish cycle. At this price level, a large number of sell orders are concentrated. This requires a flow of “new money” from new buyers. Much more powerful than “old money” trying to liquidate positions.
Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and tensions between Iran and the United States complicate the outlook. Despite Grayscale’s apparent optimism, if international diplomacy fails, investors could flee to traditional safe-haven assets. This scenario would invalidate Bitcoin’s bullish structure and return the price to the lowest zone, negating the decline in selling pressure achieved in April.
