At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $78,127.14, with traders and investors renewing their optimism that the virtual currency would surpass the $80,000 level.
nevertheless $BTC While we saw significant volatility in April, zooming out on the monthly price chart reveals that it is up over 17% in the last month.
However, despite this price momentum, BloFin Research believes:
Bitcoin’s current cycle is significantly lower than previous cycles.
This analysis is based on the April 2024 halving. Compared to previous cycles that occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020, 2024 will $BTC The cycle had less parabolic increases and smaller price increases.
Bitcoin volatility index
Measures 30-day realized volatility. Actual daily movement of Bitcoin ($BTC) The past 30 days have further confirmed that sentiment. In fact, in 2020, the indicator was 9.64%, showing sharp daily swings towards $69,000 during a massive bull market.
In 2024, it will stabilize at 3.11%. And in the current scenario, it is 1.58%, suggesting that momentum is extremely compressed. This weakness may be due to the Spot Bitcoin ETF, which launched in January 2024 and generated institutional demand.
Additionally, the Fed interest rate dilemma, tensions in the Middle East, multiple regulatory reforms, and the October 2025 crash also played a role.
But on the flip side, such a scenario also creates room for a breakout.
Mixed feelings in the community
In fact, other analysts argue that Bitcoin’s bottom is here, potentially triggering a bullish price rally in the near future.
This signal brought all Bitcoin to its lowest point in history.
But, as expected, eternal Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff thinks:
Are on-chain indicators supporting a bull market?
For that part, with metric fonts, things are a little different.
The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) weighted funding rate suggested that short traders were paying long. This means that even though the price has recovered, the majority of traders are bearish.
On the other hand, the Bitcoin Spending Return Ratio (SOPR) chart of 1.0014 shows that most Bitcoin $BTC It was sold at a low profit. Simply put, there is still room for bullish upside if demand continues.
Finally, the Fear and Greed Index being in the “neutral” zone after a few months indicates that Bitcoin could make a bullish move.
However, as AMBCrypto previously reported, the inherent demand conditions are still too fragile to confirm the beginning of a full bullish cycle.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s current underperformance compared to previous cycles could be due to Fed interest rate changes or geopolitical tensions.
- A negative funding rate and SOPR above 1 suggest that opinions about Bitcoin are diametrically opposed.
