Ethereum hit a new year-to-date low versus Bitcoin and continues to show weakness against Bitcoin. $ETH/$BTC chart. However, negative exchange flows and positive spots $ETH ETF inflows suggest that accumulation is still going on behind the scenes.
$ETH/$BTC Ethereum’s weakness widens against Bitcoin, hitting year-to-date lows
$ETH/$BTC The daily Binance chart shared by TedPillows has hit a new year-to-date low, showing that Ethereum is still losing momentum against Bitcoin.
The chart shows that $ETH/$BTC It has failed to regain its 200-day moving average and is trading below the support area at 0.02995. The 200-day SMA is near 0.03168 and the 200-day EMA is near 0.03109. Both are currently acting as resistance above price.
$ETH/$BTC Daily price chart. sauce: Ted Pillows of X
$ETH/$BTC It also fell below the recent consolidation range that formed in March and April. This breakdown pushed the pair towards the next visible support around 0.02619.
if $ETH/$BTC If the 0.02619 level cannot be sustained, the chart leaves room for a deeper move towards the lower support zone around 0.02194. The region hit a low before July’s strong rally.
Ted Pillows noted that Tom Lee has hit a new year-to-date low despite purchasing more than $200 million. $ETH weekly according to the post. The chart becomes weaker as institutional investors continue to buy. $ETH From Bitcoin with poor performance.
For the bullish situation to return, $ETH/$BTC We need to recover 0.02995 first. After that, it needs to break above the 200-day EMA and SMA around 0.03109 to 0.03168.
Ethereum exchange flows continue to be negative $ETH accumulation continues
According to the Alpharactal chart shared by ray on X, the flux balance of the Ethereum exchange has remained negative for most of the past two weeks.
The chart shows that the exchange flux balance is well below zero, which means more $ETH It seems like more people are leaving exchanges than joining them. In market terminology, this often indicates an accumulation, as holders may move. $ETH A location away from the trading venue.
Ethereum exchange flux balance chart. sauce: Alpha lactals and rays on X
The blue region has been negative since the second half of 2025, pushing it further to negative levels in 2026. This indicates that foreign exchange outflows have been dominant for a long period of time. $ETH Prices remained within a volatile range.
Ray also paid attention to this point. $ETH The ETF recorded positive monthly inflows for the first time since its inception, with $356 million in inflows in April. This adds another accumulation signal as ETF demand has increased while foreign exchange balances remain negative.
However, the chart does not show a clear price breakout yet. $ETH Prices have recovered from previous lows but are still below stronger highs from 2025.
In order for the bullish trend to become stronger, $ETH It is necessary for currency outflows to continue and ETF demand to expand in line with the visible price momentum. If negative exchange flux balances persist, this could reduce the supply available on exchanges and support subsequent larger movements.
