Ethereum is clinging to support around $1,800 as rising leverage, long congestion and continued U.S. spot ETF outflows increase downside risks for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Ethereum ($ETH) After losing the psychologically important $2,000 level, the price has extended its downtrend and the market focus is now on whether the bulls can defend the $1,800 to $1,750 support area.
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According to on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, analyst PelinayPA noted that Ethereum’s estimated leverage ratio has still risen to around 0.74, while funding rates have remained positive since April, a combination that indicates “congestion of long positions” even as prices continue to fall.
The same analysis shows Ethereum’s relative strength index hovering around 31, indicating that it is close to oversold but without a “valid rebound signal,” putting the spot price at risk if forced liquidations begin to cascade.
At the same time, the U.S. Spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund has recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading sessions, with approximately $695 million in funds withdrawn and redemptions of approximately $121 million at the daily peak, confirming what the report describes as “a continued cooling in institutional investor allocation demand.”
ETF outflows and derivatives pressure converge
Stress has increased around the $1,800 level after weeks of structurally bearish signals in both spot and derivatives markets. crypto+1
A recent crypto.news analysis observes that Ethereum has already broken below the ascending channel on the daily chart, warning that the MACD has turned bearish and failure to maintain support near $2,080 could open the door for a quick move towards the $1,800 area.
The report cited Coinglass estimates suggesting that more than $1.7 billion of leveraged long positions could face liquidation. $ETH That level has been decisively lost as it has fallen below around $2,044 and the intraday price movement has moved closer to the sandy $1,800 line.
At the same time, flow data compiled by CryptoSlate shows that ETFs combining Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen nearly $2.7 billion in net redemptions over the past two weeks, with allocators switching instead to niche products tied to Solana, XRP, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.
Major support at $1,800 centers sentiment
Against this backdrop, ChainCatcher’s summary highlights that “near-term risks are biased to the downside,” claiming that Ethereum currently “maintains a fragile structure against a backdrop of high leverage, crowded long positions, and ongoing ETF outflows,” with support at $1,800 serving as a “key observation point on market sentiment and technical aspects.”
This language echoes previous comments on crypto.news, which described $1,800 as a “psychological floor” that traders have been defending for over a month and warned that “a decline below this key structural pivot point could trigger further downside, especially given the stressful macro environment.”
A recent report on crypto.news also highlighted that Ethereum is still trading below the important $2,500 resistance cluster and that a weekly close below around $1,850 will likely see volatility accelerate toward the lower range boundaries.
At the time of writing for the ChainCatcher report, Ethereum’s stock price was listed at around $2,019, but the price movement is defined less by spot demand and more by slow outflows of ETF capital and a derivatives market where funding and leverage remain stubbornly tilted for long periods of time even when the charts break.
For now, the problem facing traders is quite simple. Will Ethereum be able to absorb another wave of ETF outflows and protect $1,800 without triggering the kind of liquidation cascade that derivatives data is clearly preparing for?
