For generations, gold has been seen as the ultimate safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension, or financial turmoil. However, recent analysis suggests that this historical characteristic may be changing. Precious metals will behave increasingly similar to assets considered risky, such as Bitcoin, and markets will move away from the protective functions traditionally ascribed to precious metals.
The correlation between gold and the S&P 500 index has risen from virtually non-existent levels to a record comparable to that observed with Bitcoin. This is the conclusion reached by economist Robin Brooks in his article “Has gold lost its safe-haven status?” in which he asserts: Metals no longer move so independently from the stock marketbut increasingly responsive to the same factors that affect other risk assets.
According to Brooks, this change began to become apparent from the end of 2025. Gold has historically benefited from investors seeking haven during times of heightened geopolitical tensions, but as CriptoNoticias explained, its behavior was different. According to data analyzed by economists, between 2011 and most of 2025, Gold maintains a near-zero correlation with the S&P 500 Index and has developed a reputation as an effective diversification tool.
This change is clearly visible in the following graph created using data from Haver Analytics. From 2011 to August 2025, gold had virtually zero correlation with the S&P 500; In the months that followed, this relationship deepened significantly.especially in a period marked by geopolitical tensions in 2026. This move reinforces the argument that, at least recently, Bitcoin is beginning to respond to the same macroeconomic factors that drive other assets, including it.
This phenomenon coincided with the expansion of so-called “devaluation trade”. A strategy based on the expectation that high levels of public debt and expansionary monetary policy will continue. This will ultimately erode the value of fiat currencies. This story has drawn a new wave of buyers into the gold market, greatly expanding the base of investors interested in the metal.
The numbers support that trend. According to the World Gold Council, Global gold demand reaches record level in 2025, exceeding 4,900 tonnes Between investments, jewelry, technology and official purchases. At the same time, the total amount of gold mined and available worldwide exceeded $31 trillion, establishing it as one of the most important assets in the global financial system.
Brooks believes part of this transformation can be explained by increased participation by retail investors. Unlike traditional buyers, these participants tend to react more quickly to changes in market sentiment and volatility. As a result, gold may incorporate dynamics typical of assets driven by expectations and investment narratives rather than historical safe-haven fundamentals.
Another factor reinforcing this theory is the decoupling of gold from real interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds.. Traditionally, when real yields rise, gold tends to become less attractive because it does not earn interest. However, over the past few years, real yields have remained high, sometimes exceeding 2%, and gold continues to hit new all-time highs. This breakout suggests that new forces are influencing price formation.
Nevertheless, economists do not believe that gold has lost its usefulness. Central banks continue to build up metal reserves, with official purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes This shows that it continues to be recognized as a long-term strategic stockpile. But the company cautions that its actions may be evolving towards a more volatile inflation hedge that is sensitive to market sentiment.
Not all analysts share this interpretation. Daniel Arraez, an economist specializing in Bitcoin, The behavior of gold does not necessarily mean that it has lost its refugeHowever, both the metal and Bitcoin will react to common factors such as increasing debt, currency expansion, and seeking protection against currency depreciation. Analysts at JP Morgan have a similar opinion: Both assets benefit from so-called “devaluation transactions.”Therefore, the higher correlation observed may reflect the common macroeconomic environment rather than a definitive loss of gold’s historical role as a store of value.
The big question is whether this phenomenon is temporary or indicative of a structural change. What is clear is that gold no longer behaves as predictably as it did in the past. For investors, this debate is no small matter. This market, worth more than $31 trillion, could redefine one of the characteristics that has underpinned its reputation as a safe haven for generations.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
