Market analyst Knox Ridley has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) gains in the coming weeks are doomed to fail before reaching the $116,000 area. According to their analysis, a structural lack of liquidity in the global economy will prevent crypto asset prices from continuing to rise sustainably.
In an analysis published yesterday, April 23, 2026, Ridley explained that even if Bitcoin were able to rise significantly above $79,000 in the short term, current macroeconomic conditions would mean that “such a rally would ultimately push it below the $106,000 to $116,000 resistance zone.” This warning is based on the strong impact of a strong US dollar and stagnant global liquidity on risk assets.
The expert noted that the dollar remains “the most powerful and persistent driver of global liquidity.” When the DXY index rises (as happened when it approached 98 points), there is less money available to invest in assets considered “risky” such as Bitcoin. This inverse correlation continues even today. However, the crypto remains near $77,000, showing more resistance than in 2022. Despite the dollar’s rise.
There are structural reasons behind this dynamic. Approximately 64% of global debt is denominated in dollars. When the US currency becomes more expensive, foreign borrowers have to allocate more resources to acquiring dollars to meet their obligations, draining capital that could otherwise flow into Bitcoin.
Moreover, the liquidity available today is used almost exclusively. Refinance existing debt instead of generating new productive investment. Three out of every four financial transactions in the world are related to debt repayments, Ridley said, severely limiting the expansion of markets like Bitcoin.
This liquidity constraint is confirmed by data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). total world public debt It is projected to reach 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029levels not seen since after World War II.
In this restrictive environment, Ridley also warns of impending downside risks. If Bitcoin loses its major support at $62,500, Could cause a decline in the $55,000 to $40,000 rangethe area between $48,000 and $46,000 is the level most likely to find the bottom.
Other analysts have reinforced this view of vulnerability. Michael van de Poppe noted that although there are many short positions accumulated at the $79,000 resistance level, there is a risk that any pullback will not be sustained.
Julio Moreno, head of research at the CryptoQuant data platform, emphasized that the recent price increase is mainly driven by perpetual futures leverage, while demand is low. spot According to a report from CriptoNoticias, the actual purchase value of Bitcoin continues to shrink.
But in the long term, Ridley remains clearly bullish on Bitcoin. “Unlike the US dollar, Bitcoin cannot be inflated,” the analyst says.
More importantly, it is “increasingly recognized as a store of value that can be transferred directly between parties, whether they consent to it or not, across borders and without the permission of intermediaries or governments.”
As national economies face unsustainable debt that requires continued financial expansion, Bitcoin positions itself as the preeminent safe-haven asset in a world dominated by inflationary currencies.
