British bank Standard Chartered said on June 12, 2026 that the crypto winter has passed after Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,000, a level considered a possible cycle bottom.
The paper, published by Jeff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, argues that a 53% correction from an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 would have marked the depletion point of the bear market.
Their analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current price near $64,000 is consolidating its base after the cycle’s biggest episode of selling pressure. ETF flows and global liquidity now dominate market dynamics This will exceed the past halving pattern.
Mr. Kendrick’s theory is supported by the view that USD 59,000 represents the lower bound reached at the liquidation stage augmented by external factors. In particular, the US Bitcoin ETF Recorded net outflows of approximately $5 billion since mid-Mayas seen in the following graph, downward pressure is likely to have increased in an illiquid environment.
According to the report, some of these flows were related to capital rotations for the SpaceX IPO worth approximately US$1.75 trillion, which would have forced some investors to exit ETF positions to preserve liquidity. After this process, the market rebounded from the lows to the current area, which the bank interpreted as stabilization after a partial capitulation phase.
The concept of a crypto winter, understood as a prolonged period of decline, capital outflows and reduced institutional liquidity, will be a completed stage for Standard Chartered. Based on this view, the market would enter a different regime, with price movements more dependent on monetary policy, flows to ETFs, and allocations to institutional investors than on traditional four-year cycles.
The end of crypto winter: far from a unanimous vision
The bank’s vision is at odds with that of other actors in the sector. Some in the market believe that the USD 59,000 level is not yet a definitive bottom. While Galaxy Research’s research predicts a downside scenario towards USD 40,000-46,000, Bitwise’s Andre Dragos estimates that an additional correction of close to 20% could still occur in potentially stressed territory around USD 48,000.
Add to this the vision of analyst and educator Benjamin Cowen. He argues that the four-year cycle is still valid and that a true minimum could form towards the end of 2026 in the USD 30,000-40,000 range.
In parallel, analysis by CryptoQuant adds a more structural reading on demand weakness, as reported by CryptoNoticias. The company points to the network’s realized price level of $53,600. It can serve as an important reference in this cycle. However, it warned that total demand for Bitcoin fell by about 652,000 BTC in the past week, the largest decline since January 2022.
Furthermore, he argues that the performance of ETFs that were previously driving demand is now declining and could even have started contributing to net selling pressure. In this context, CryptoQuant We conclude that clear surrender has not yet been observed.this weakens the idea that the market has formed a definitive bottom.
This debate is also intensified by Kendrick’s own history.He has maintained significantly bullish forecasts for Bitcoin in previous cycles, including targets of USD 100,000 by 2024 and USD 200,000 by 2025, which have since been adjusted downward by Standard Chartered based on actual developments in ETF flows and institutional demand. This trajectory has fueled some market skepticism about the accuracy of cycle calls.
In this scenario, Standard Chartered’s theory is positioned as an optimistic interpretation of the current regime rather than a consensus. If ETF inflows stabilize and the macroeconomic environment improves, current levels could establish as the basis for the next bullish leg, targeting USD 100,000 in 2026. However, if demand weakness persists and accumulation metrics do not recover, the supposed end of crypto winter could become a pause in a broader correction where the true bottom of the cycle is yet to be defined.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
