Bitcoin’s BTC$92,898.43 Prices will continue to reflect a complex mix of macro trends and market-specific events into 2026.
According to Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, BTC is shaped by three long-term forces and seven short-term forces.
The long-term factor is the global M2 money supply, the increase in the disinflationary supply of Bitcoin, and the proliferation of it. Short-term factors include market risk sentiment, interest rates, a strong US dollar, seasonality, excess central bank liquidity, large supply of Bitcoin wallets, and financial contagion.
As 2026 begins, some of these short-term variables appear to be aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. Ferraioli noted that credit spreads remain tight and the market has already washed away many of the speculative derivative positions that caused the selloff in late 2025.
“A risk-on environment in equities must support cryptocurrencies, which are the ultimate risk assets,” he said.
Monetary policy may also provide a tailwind. “We believe interest rates and the dollar will continue to fall this year,” he added. “Liquidity is being supported by the end of quantitative tightening and the resumption of balance sheet expansion.”
Headwinds still persist. While adoption may slow in the first half of this year, especially after the swings in late 2025, Ferraioli sees a potential turnaround as regulatory clarity improves. “Passage of the Transparency Act could accelerate adoption by true institutional investors,” he said.
Halving cycles must also be considered. “The third year of the halving cycle has been a historically bad year. There are many crypto investors following that cycle theory, so that could weigh on the price,” he argued.
Since 2017, Bitcoin has typically risen about 70% from its lows each year, but this move is aimed at smoothing out volatility. Although 2026 is expected to be a positive year, revenues are likely to be well below historical averages, Ferraioli said.
He also warned that how Bitcoin behaves in relation to traditional assets could change. He expects cryptocurrencies to have low correlation with other asset classes and macro factors. “The correlation with megacap AI stocks remains high, but the correlation with broader stock indexes is decreasing,” Ferraioli said. Said.
