Important points:
- Solana maintains market dominance in DEX volume and TVL despite underperforming compared to its competitors.
- Easing selling pressure due to unstable geopolitics and resurgence of memecoin activity could push SOL price to $100.
Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) rose 10% in five days, hitting a three-week high on Friday. This price change followed general excitement after the US and Iran announced a ceasefire extension, leading to an 8% drop in Brent crude oil prices. Demand for SOL futures has surged as open interest has risen 20% since Sunday, leaving traders wondering whether SOL price will stay at $100.
SOL futures aggregate open interest, SOL. Source: Coinglass
Total open interest in SOL futures rose to $4.2 billion on Friday from $3.5 billion on Sunday. The increased appetite for leveraged positions indicates the participation of institutional investors, but the longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) always remain aligned. However, the imbalance in demand for leveraged positions should eventually become evident within the perpetual futures market.
Under neutral conditions, the annualized funding rate should be in the range of 5% to 10% to cover the cost of capital.
SOL Perpetual Futures Annualized Funding Rate. sauce: Lightness
While the data showing interest rates at 3% indicates low confidence among the bulls, this is still a far cry from the extreme fear levels seen on April 7th when SOL price fell below $80. A negative funding ratio indicates that short sellers are paying to maintain their positions, which is quite unusual in the crypto market.
Total crypto market capitalization (billions of USD, left) vs. SOL/USD. sauce: TradingView
Despite the recent rally, SOL has underperformed the broader crypto market by 13% in 2026. Declining demand for decentralized applications (DApps) is also likely playing a role, but the Solana network remains a strong contender due to its sub-leadership in Total Value Locked and its dominance in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume.
Solana Network Weekly DApps Revenue (USD). Source: Defilama
Solana Network’s DApp revenue has been on the decline for the past few months and now totals nearly $16 million per week. However, this trajectory is not unique to Solana. DApps on the Ethereum network generated $10 million in revenue over the past week, compared to $4 million for the BNB chain. Diminished interest in DEX activities remains the main driver of revenue decline across the industry.
Meme coin rises, short covering could push SOL to $100
Multiple meme coins soared more than 40% between Wednesday and Friday, which likely contributed to the increased demand for SOL futures.
Best performing Solana token in 7 days. Source: CoinGecko
During the last meme coin rally in early 2025, Solana emerged as a leader in terms of users and activity, especially after the launch of the Trump official (TRUMP) meme coin. Therefore, signs of increased demand for meme coins are usually considered a positive indicator for SOL price.
Related: Bitcoin rises, oil falls after Iran announces opening of Strait of Hormuz
Solana has proven to be a serious contender for the next wave of DApp users, whether centered around AI agents or speculative trading. The robustness of its validators and the unified user experience provided by Web3 Wallet make a compelling case for sustained SOL price appreciation.
At the end of the day, there is little constraint for SOL to regain momentum due to weak demand for bullish leverage on futures. Reducing pressure from the Iran war could trigger SOL shorts to cover their positions and provide the spark needed for a potential rally towards $100.
