Attracting new users may not be a major challenge for cryptocurrencies, but keeping users active beyond the first month is much more difficult, and data from prediction markets sheds light on this issue.
Polymarket’s retention data, compiled by analytics firm Dune and market maker Keylock, tracked monthly cohorts of new active users and measured the number of users who returned to trade in subsequent months.
According to the report, which sampled 275 crypto projects across networks, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, wallets, and trading apps, Polymarket’s average retention rate was higher than over 85% of protocols.
This data highlighted how rare sustained usage is across the cryptocurrency sector. In markets where liquidity depends on frequent participation, weak retention may indicate shallow growth.
Comparison of Polymarket retention rates and crypto entities. Source: Token Terminal
Why crypto platforms are entering the prediction market
Prediction markets offer a different structure than crypto apps. This engagement is tied to real-world events such as elections, sports competitions, and macroeconomic releases, creating recurring reasons for users to re-engage.
Event-driven cycles encourage high-frequency participation over short-term speculation and reduce reliance on incentives to sustain trading activity.
This dynamic may explain why some of the largest cryptocurrency platforms are increasingly experimenting with prediction market integration.
Cryptocurrency entities have struggled to maintain consistent user engagement outside of periods of high volatility, potentially prompting them to explore features that encourage habitual usage rather than one-time transactions.
Related: CFTC gives prediction markets freedom on data and record-keeping rules
Crypto Entity Experiments with Prediction Markets
Cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Gemini, wallet service Phantom, and clearing provider Bitnomial Clearinghouse are some of the crypto entities that hinted at entering the prediction markets space in December.
On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase will launch a tokenized stock and prediction market. This followed a post by technology researcher Jane Manchun Wong sharing an alleged leak of the exchange’s prediction market website.
On the same day, Phantom partnered with prediction market Kalshi to bring event-based trading to its wallet interface. This integration will allow users to trade tokenized Kalshi positions on the Phantom app.
On Saturday, Bitnomial received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch prediction markets and provide clearing services for other platforms.
On Tuesday, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini launched an internal prediction market in all 50 US states. The company said it aims to build a one-stop user app where users can also participate in cryptocurrency trading and prediction markets.
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