Bitcoin ($BTC) The second quarter recovery ended at approximately $83,000. It has since fallen 25% to less than $60,000, effectively wiping out the gains of the quarter’s entire recovery.
Concerns about Fed interest rate hikes, strategy overhangs and geopolitical tensions helped short sellers take profits. Currently, the crypto asset is retesting the 200-week MA (moving average, white), a key level that marks the bottom of the previous market cycle.
This could help start the next Bitcoin bull market cycle, but analysts expect another sharp drawdown.
Bitcoin market bottom is near, but not there yet
Renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen recently warned that a dire crash below the 200 WMA is likely in the second half of 2026.
A decisive pullback later this year, while scary at first, will likely only set the bottom of the Bitcoin market cycle in Q4 2026.
His predictions were based on 2022 market patterns. Bitcoin It fell below the downside support of the 200WMA bull market cycle for the first time in 2022.
At the time of this writing, the price of Bitcoin was trading just below $62,000. And this is the fourth week $BTC I’m flirting with 200WMA.
Going back to 2022, it remained below that level for several months until the bull market began in September 2023. This happened afterwards. $BTC It has decisively regained the 200-day moving average (200DMA, blue), a level that typically acts as support for bull market cycles.
The 2020 rally also began in September and accelerated in the fourth quarter. Therefore, if current trends mirror the past two cycle patterns, Cowen’s prediction of a sharp decline below the 200WMA followed by a recovery in late 2026 could be validated.
In fact, beyond the price chart, Worryingly high leverage And demand is weak. This was the perfect combination for a potentially boosting liquidation event. $BTC Analysts at Binance Research say it’s lower.
All in all, we cannot rule out the possibility of a further break below bear market support or an extended decline below $60,000 well into the third quarter. In such a scenario, the next potential price floor would be approximately $53,000, which is the realized price for most companies. $BTC holder.
But it’s not all doom and gloom for bulls who are tired of timing. bottom of the market. From an on-chain perspective, $BTC Based on past patterns, we may be near the final market bottom.
Currently, long-term holders (those who held in the past) are $BTC control approximately 78% (over 6 months) $BTCinvested capital (realization limit). According to on-chain analyst James Check, these levels represent historical market bottoms.
Historically, this indicator tends to peak late in a bear market, with supply gradually shifting from weak hands to long-term investors.
The check was added as follows $BTC We may be nearing the “spiky end” of this bear market. In other words, levels below $65,000 could be a great buying opportunity based on long-term investor behavior.
In fact, Bitfinex analysts reinforced Check’s outlook, adding:
long term $BTC Holders were sold in preparation for the 2024 ETF rally. Now they are doing the opposite. The group that took profits at the top is accumulating declines.
Is there any possibility of consolidation towards the end of the second quarter?
short-term headwinds $BTC The bull is the OG whale ( $BTC +5 years) and macro pressures.
According to Galaxy Research, this group’s selling pressure (blue bars) has overwhelmed U.S. ETF absorption (purple) in the past few weeks. On average, the net $BTC Demand considering ET, strategic bidding, and OG distribution was negative at 120,000 $BTC.
Simply put, thin demand and the previously highlighted leverage risks can derail plans. $BTC In the near future.
Meanwhile, Singapore-based QCP Capital believes May PCE inflation data, scheduled for Thursday, June 25, could trigger a second-quarter positioning exit. The company pointed out the following:
Following recent hawkish comments from policymakers, a larger-than-expected upside surprise could fuel expectations for further policy tightening, while softer-than-expected readings are likely to support crypto and other risk assets.
At the time of writing, the consensus forecast is for headline PCE to rise 0.4% on a month-on-month (mom-on-month) basis, while core PCE is expected to rise 0.3-0.4%.
Still, institutional investors and professional traders had a bullish outlook for the asset in the short and medium term.
This was reinforced by positive increases in skew across the 1-week, 1-month, and 3-month periods. This means that there was more demand for calls (bullish bets) than puts (hedging, bearish bets) towards the end of Q2 and Q3 option expirations.
Will Q3 provide the last offer? $BTC A chance to buy?
Overall, the market bottom phase is a process and not a one-time event. Therefore, a decline towards $54,000 is still possible.
Still, if the 2022 and 2018 market patterns play out, Q3 2026 could be the last opportunity for long-term holders to buy at a discount.
But to ensure the start of the next bull market cycle, $BTC We need to decisively get back our 200 DMA, which is currently worth $76,000.
Final summary
- $BTC It is likely to drop below $60,000 again before marking the final market cycle bottom.
- Still, if the next bull market begins in Q4 2026, the pullback could be the biggest buying opportunity.
