Same record as before, split into two groups. On one side, the 17 coins from our tracked launches that peaked above fifty thousand dollars. On the other, the 336 that never reached ten thousand at any point in six hours.
The point of the comparison is to find the numbers that actually differ between the two groups, and to name the ones that do not.
The 17
| Coin | Peak market cap |
|---|---|
| Prophet | $26,152,788 |
| CONSOLE | $6,012,098 |
| SUBX | $2,744,363 |
| SAFU | $2,383,935 |
| MAGA | $1,948,089 |
| FCOIN | $1,476,646 |
| FFM | $401,974 |
| CTO | $293,710 |
| bot | $179,279 |
| CLMATE | $116,909 |
| NNN | $76,353 |
| SPOOKY | $71,228 |
| SUPERINU | $69,007 |
| Paws | $68,223 |
| MIP | $56,449 |
| CZ | $55,224 |
| KIM | $54,481 |
Two numbers separated the groups
| Median | Broke 50,000 | Never reached 10,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Unique buyers | 61 | 4 |
| Total trades | 499 | 11.5 |
| Repeat buyer share | 62.5% | 35.8% |
| Separate buying bursts | 5 | 2 |
| Human share of buying | 9.5% | 8.6% |
Unique buyers is the widest gap on the table: sixty one wallets against four. Trades is the second: four hundred and ninety nine against eleven and a half. Coins that went somewhere had a crowd arriving, and that crowd kept trading.
The last row matters as much as the first. Human share of buying was 9.5 percent among the winners and 8.6 percent among the dead. On this sample, how much of the buying came from bots versus people did not separate winners from the rest at all. A coin can be ninety percent bots and run to a million. It can be ninety percent bots and die at two thousand eight hundred.
Winners come in two shapes, and one is much worse to arrive late on
Sort the 17 by how concentrated their buying was and they split cleanly.
Broad winners. SAFU peaked at 2.38 million dollars on 271 unique buyers. CONSOLE reached 6.01 million on 187. CTO, MIP, CZ, KIM and FFM all sat in the hundreds of buyers. Lots of wallets, moderate repeat activity, a crowd that grew.
Narrow winners. SUBX reached 2.74 million dollars on five unique buyers with a 100 percent repeat share. MAGA reached 1.95 million on 18 buyers at 99.2 percent repeat. FCOIN reached 1.48 million on nine buyers at 98.8 percent. Prophet, the single largest peak in the record at 26.15 million, did it on 23 buyers at 95.8 percent repeat.
A five buyer coin at two point seven million dollars means a handful of wallets did essentially all of the trading, over and over. Those coins reached the same place on the chart as SAFU, by a completely different route. If you buy into a narrow runner after the fact, the wallets that carried it are the ones holding the supply you are buying from. The chart looks the same. The exit does not.
This is the reason our checker reports exit cost and the ten wallet share before anything else. A coin with a beautiful chart and a four thousand dollar pool is not the same trade as one with a beautiful chart and a ninety thousand dollar pool, and the difference is measurable in seconds.
What we are not claiming
Our snapshot for this window did not capture holder counts, top ten concentration or dev and bundle percentages, so those come back empty in the record and we are not drawing conclusions from them. Seventeen winners is a small group, and the comparison is descriptive, not predictive. It says what the winners looked like. It does not tell you the next one will.
Two things we did change because of it: the board at the front page ranks on live buying rather than feed position, and the coin checker puts bag above you and exit cost in front of the grade. The survivor study covers what happens after a coin graduates, which is a different question with its own numbers.
Method
Sample: the same 381 launches with a full six hour trace. Cohorts split on peak market cap, 17 at fifty thousand or above and 336 that never reached ten thousand. Feature medians are taken across each cohort’s captured snapshot at the time we first saw the coin. Figures rounded; small samples disclosed because they are small.
