In the latest episode of All Things Markets, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicted that the flagship cryptocurrency is poised to regain its $70,000 benchmark by the end of July 2026.
Both investors believe macroeconomic pressures and upcoming regulatory milestones will be strong catalysts for a price reversal.
“Do you think Bitcoin can get back to 70,000 by the end of July? I’ll be the first to say it will,” Scaramucci said. “My thinking is that the economy is on fire and sentiment is so negative that additional purchases could push it up to $70.”
Mike Novogratz also shared this optimistic outlook. “I think we’ll recover 70/30,” Novogratz said. “A lot depends on the situation… I mean, ask if clarity happens, I definitely think it will. If clarity doesn’t happen… we’ll know by July 10th if this is happening.”
$40 trillion debt spiral
Novogratz argues that America’s large budget deficits have effectively left policymakers with no choice but to rely on inflation. According to the crypto mogul, this essentially strengthens the story of hard assets like Bitcoin.
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“We have $40 trillion in debt and it’s growing,” Novogratz warned. “The only way to deal with this debt is to inflate it and cancel it. It’s over. There’s no other way. You can’t grow from $40 trillion in debt. So we actually need inflation, we have to do some form of 3-4% inflation…We need to crush that debt.”
But Novogratz said this strategy carries enormous economic risks if public trust is lost. “What usually happens is that people lose control of their confidence and all of a sudden the inflation rate goes up from 4% to 14% or 40%. And all the debt is canceled, but so is all the wealth. We are playing the trickiest game that macroeconomics can play.”
regulatory catalyst
Novogratz spoke of the extensive effort on Capitol Hill to push the bill across the finish line.
“I spent 10 hours on Wednesday, meeting with eight different senators and congressmen from the right and left,” Novogratz said. “And here’s the positive: Everyone on the right and left wants to get this done…In a huge bill, we’ve narrowed it down to three issues.”
Novogratz said the ultimate issue revolves around political ethics rules and how much power prosecutors should have over privacy protocols. “One is ethics…Democrats feel, rightly or wrongly, that this administration has personally benefited tremendously and that cryptocurrencies are one of the tools they’ve used…[The second is]the ability to prosecute people like Tornado Cash…should the person who built it be held accountable? The crypto community is saying, ‘No, no, it’s just crypto.'”
Novogratz admitted his confidence had waned a bit, saying: “I’m still positive, but I would have gone down from 85/15 three weeks ago to 60/40.” Scaramucci was even more skeptical about a breakthrough before the summer recess, saying: “It feels like the wind is blowing. I think some of the things the president has done have been enough to sway the opposition that doesn’t want to give them a win here.”
“Sailor Strategy”
The pair concluded by analyzing the trading behavior of Strategy’s Michael Saylor. He raised eyebrows by selling a small amount of Bitcoin before buying a huge amount of $101 million just a few days later.
Novogratz explained that Thaler is managing MicroStrategy’s debt as it transitions its balance sheet from standard statutory debt. “Michael is making his own move from dollar-based debt to MicroStrategy-based preferences…What he was trying to do, and I think it was a terrible mistake, was to tell the market, ‘Hey, I’m not afraid to sell Bitcoin. Don’t worry about my preferences. You can’t lose money on these preferences.'”
Ultimately, Novogratz emphasized that Thaler’s deep beliefs are what distinguish him from traditional fund managers. “Michael believes everything he says. He believes that Bitcoin is one of the greatest inventions ever created and that because governments can’t stop people from spending money…this thing is still destined for a million people. If you ask a lot of market players like me, I think he’s right. We always think about things based on probability. We’re not religious. He’s religious.”
