VanEck’s Matthew Siegel says Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the next US presidential term.
This gives us an expected 8% increase as a target for 2031 in a market that is still trying to prove that it can maintain the $1,150 million region.
crypto slate On the Bitcoin page, as of May 9, BTC was around $80,200, with a market capitalization of nearly $1.61 trillion, and the highest price recorded on October 6, 2025, was $126,198.
A rise to $200,000, another recently discussed price target, would require Bitcoin to rise approximately 2.5x from that level. To move to $1 million, you would need about 12.5x.
Bitcoin has seen larger percentage moves in the past, but the current prediction cycle now hinges on the market question: whether recent institutional demand is strong enough to absorb the coin’s selling and lead to a rebound.
Why 7-digit math is back
VanEck calls are made in parallel with other 7-digit frameworks. Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan presented a formal $1 million model in March, arguing that Bitcoin could reach seven digits if it gains market share as the store of value market expands.
Under his model, the market would grow to about $121 trillion over 10 years, reaching $1 million if Bitcoin captures about 17% of the total.
This is a different timeline than the five-year outlook reported by Siegel, but the logic overlaps. Rather than relying on a single transaction catalyst, both rely on Bitcoin becoming a bigger part of the way institutions, advisors, governments, and young investors think about long-term savings outside of the fiat banking system.
Van Eck’s own research desk had already published a longer version of that argument. In a Bitcoin 2050 scenario in 2024, the firm modeled the potential for Bitcoin price to reach $2.9 million by 2050 if BTC becomes a meaningful medium of exchange and reserve asset.
Assumptions regarding trade settlements, reserve holdings, and Bitcoin scaling infrastructure are used in this report. This newly reported call, although more immediate, comes from the same broad research stance. In other words, Bitcoin’s valuation as a macro asset depends on its adoption beyond crypto-native buyers.
If the thesis is simply a trading call, the next resistance level is the most important factor. If the theory is adoption calculations, then ETF flows, portfolio allocation, sovereign reserve movements, and the size of the global store of value market are more important than a single weekly candlestick.
The immediate price range is not very clean. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee’s 2026 Bitcoin range of $200,000 to $250,000 should also be added to the conversation.
before crypto slate Reports had already indicated that Lee’s $200,000 outlook was part of a broader set of goals for 2026 that also included calls for more conservative and more aggressive institutional investors.
Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is said to be aiming for $125,000 as a short-term goal related to liquidity and war spending.
With these calls, Bitcoin appears to have entered a target-focused phase once again. Hayes’ framework is macrofluid and event-driven. Lee provides his outlook for the 2026 market cycle.
Bitwise’s model is a store-of-value share calculation. VanEck’s reported conference call compressed a seven-figure result into about five years.
This difference should keep us grounded. Concentrations of bullish forecasts can cause sentiment to change, but market structure should still guide prices there. The Fear and Greed Index remains firmly in the “fear” category.
Low $80,000 test informs predictions
recent crypto slate Reports framed Bitcoin’s rally above $80,000 as a real test between seller supply and ETF demand. While long-term holders are locking in profits, spot buyers of Bitcoin ETFs are helping absorb supply.
This conflict is why the $90,000 area keeps showing up as the next upside test.
The bullish version is simple. If demand for the ETF continues to absorb coins from older holders, the low $80,000 range could become a baseline rather than a ceiling. A move towards $90,000 from there would not only cushion the pullback, but also provide evidence to the market that institutional access is doing the work of true price discovery.
That still leaves $200,000 as a marginal goal. However, this will make it easier to discuss the six-digit 2026 target without treating it in isolation from trading demand.
A market that can hold $80,000, push through $90,000, and do so in response to broad spot demand seems to be a better fit for a Fundstrat-style bullish case than a market that continues to reject the same supply zone.
Failure stories are equally important. If demand for the ETF wanes while long-term holders continue to sell for the rally, the $1 million argument becomes less of an explanation of the current price and more of a long-term adoption argument.
In that case, the 5-year and 10-year goals can remain intellectually consistent while the 2026 market still struggles to break out of that range.
This tension separates price targets from the evidence that makes them meaningful today. Bitcoin may leave the $1 million debate unresolved for now. Buyers arriving through ETFs and institutional channels will need to show whether they are still willing to absorb supply near the levels that have recently acted as resistance.
Therefore, the actual threshold will be smaller than the largest target on the board. While a clean $90,000 push would not validate the seven-digit calculation, it would indicate that the market can handle seller pressure while fresh funds are still arriving into spot Bitcoin products.
What will change the market signals next?
Bitcoin needs to maintain the low $80,000 region and then attack $90,000 with enough spot demand to make this move look sustainable.
New confirmation of ETF flow data, distribution of long-term holders, and VanEck comments carry more weight than just another round number from management or strategists.
The seven-digit goal is shifting the debate from whether Bitcoin can return to its 2025 highs to whether the asset can become a larger share of global savings. This is a much bigger discussion than a technical breakout, but it still requires the cooperation of the current market.
For now, the reliable conclusion is that institutional researchers are eager to publish or champion seven-digit math again while the market tests whether ETF-era demand can turn $80,000 from a stress point to a launch point.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
