Goldman Sachs warned that while short-term risks for stocks have declined, macro uncertainty remains high. According to a report by AMBCrypto, the US 10-year Treasury yield has exceeded 4.63%, the highest level since February 2025.
Uncertainty regarding the US-Iran peace talks and rising oil prices are contributing to the macro risk outlook.
Since Friday, May 15th, Bitcoin ($BTC) was revised 5.15%, falling from $81,000 to $76,900. The 4-hour chart has a bullish structure, but the area up to $90,000 was the supply zone for the higher time frame.
Recent losses were almost entirely due to capitulation by short-term holders. Analyst Moreno noted that on CryptoQuant, short-term holders took profits at just $112. $BTC Within the last 24-hour window.
In comparison, STH sold around 15,000 units. $BTC They are in losses, as shown by the 24-hour short-term holder P&L indicator for the exchange.
This suggests that the correction from $81,000 forced weak hands to sell more and more. Exchanges need to absorb inflows to continue the short-term upward trend in prices.
As the previous price chart showed, a break below $74,937 would result in a bearish shift in the H4 structure. Until then, the short-term uptrend has room to continue higher despite macro risks.
bearish $BTC Bias after composite signal goes below zero
The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index used by analyst Axel Adler Jr. takes into account six market signals, including taker imbalance, funding rate, and ETF flows.
Negative values indicate a bearish structure, and both the slow and fast versions of the index are bearish signals.
During the recent bullish move above $80,000, the index remained positive for only three days. Then it turned bearish. This means that the seller’s pressure has completely absorbed the buyer’s impulse.
Bitcoin’s price structure composite signal entered negative territory, indicating that sellers are in control. The overall index was around -0.55, with momentum dropping to -0.78.
These findings confirmed the stable bearish regime findings from the structural index.
Reversing this bearish regime will require steady spot ETF inflows and price movement above the $78.2K 7-day EMA, as well as open interest and bullish funding rates.
Final summary
- Although the 4-hour price structure was technically bullish, other indicators showed Bitcoin in a stable bearish regime.
- Price movements of over $78.2 million, increased ETF inflows, and increased derivatives trading volume led to $BTC revival.
