Financial firm Standard Chartered has once again defended one of the most aggressive predictions for Ethereum in the crypto market: ETH reaching $40,000 towards the end of 2030. This prediction was reiterated by Jeff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, just as the cryptocurrency experienced one of its weakest periods last year and once again lost the $2,000 level.
In a note sent to customers, the bank said: It also reaffirmed its interim goal of raising ETH to $4,000 by the end of 2026.. This forecast is based on the belief that the network’s fundamental metrics remain strong despite the market deterioration. The number of transactions and total value locked (TVL) of decentralized applications on Ethereum remain near all-time highs measured in ETH. This comes even after the cryptocurrency has fallen by around 59% from its record of $4,880 set in August 2025.
The decline is not only against the dollar. Ethereum also lost momentum against Bitcoin. ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to a level near 0.027, the lowest level in the past five years. For Standard Chartered, this relative weakness could be reversed if the ecosystem is able to capitalize on expected growth in areas such as stablecoins and the tokenization of real-world assets.
The financial institution believes that the stablecoin market could increase in market capitalization six times by 2028. Project says real-world tokenized assets will grow up to 50x over the same period. The bank estimates that Ethereum will continue to dominate 50% to 65% of both sectors, making the network the key infrastructure for its growth. Currently, these segments already account for more than half of the value locked within the Ethereum ecosystem.
The fall in asset prices did not change the vision of British banks. Kendrick claimed he would experience a situation similar to that experienced by Amazon. At the time, the Jeff Bezos-founded company’s stock price fell from $113 to just $6, but the business continued to grow internally. After years of adjusting stock splits, Amazon ended up growing about 1,000 times since that crash. But it seems the market is still a long way from sharing that enthusiasm.
After breaking through the $2,000 support, small investors began placing large orders to “buy the dip,” according to data from analytics firm Santiment. The analysis firm warned that historically this behavior is usually a negative signal. In the short term, it reflects excessive retail optimism ahead of a new decline. Analysts on the platform say a true market bottom typically occurs when buyers finally capitulate and stop expecting a rebound.
To illustrate the above, here is the graph: The white line corresponds to the price of ETH. The green bar represents the amount of positive comments about the asset on social networks, while the red bar indicates negative mentions. The yellow line represents the ratio of bullish to bearish sentiment. When this line crosses the area circled in red, known as the “FOMO zone,” the market enters a level of excessive optimism based on social media activity. In contrast, when markets fall toward the lower green zone, known as the “FUD zone,” fear dominates the psychology of market participants.
While retail investors were buying, institutional investors moved in the opposite direction. Larger flows continued to withdraw or bet on more bearish pressure. That perception is also reflected in Polymarket, where users of the prediction market place a 57% chance (as of this note) that ETH will end the year below $1,500. This bet has already moved in the amount of over $6.4 million.
At the same time, the derivatives market is showing mixed signals. Open interest in Ether futures increased to an all-time high of 16.39 million ETH (equivalent to approximately $32.61 billion), even as prices continued to fall. In market analysis terms, this is often interpreted as the accumulation of a new short position, i.e. the trader is betting on further decline. According to Coinglass data, the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains at around 0.0074%, indicating that traders are not willing to pay a high premium to maintain bullish positions.
Although Ethereum maintains its leadership in areas such as stablecoins and asset tokenization, the market is still debating whether its growth is enough to make ETH valuable again. Uncertainty continues to dominate the outlook amid bearish positions, retail purchases, and optimistic forecasts.
