Plan B, a Dutch analyst known for creating the model From stock to flow (S2F) assumes that Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet reached the minimum of this cycle.
“The market is 50-50 on whether February’s $60,000 was the bottom or whether the bear market continues,” he wrote on the X social network on June 1, 2026.
The analyst said current data suggests a bottom has not yet formed. “There is a more than 50% chance of a break below the 200-week moving average ($61,000) or realized price ($53,000),” he said.
To support his claim, Plan B shared a graph that combines several historical indicators of the Bitcoin network.
As seen in the image above, this chart brings together several indicators used in Plan B to assess whether Bitcoin has already found a bottom or whether the decline could still deepen.
The gray line shows the realized price (realized price), an on-chain metric that calculates the average price at which all BTC in circulation last moved. at the moment It sits near $53,000, which serves as one of the bearish benchmarks indicated by analysts.
Meanwhile, the black line represents the 200-week weighted moving average, located around $61,000. This indicator Often used to identify long-term support zones for Bitcoin.
So if Plan B suggests that the price could be below $61,000 or closer to $53,000; These two refer to the technical level and the on-chain levelwhich is not true for the long-term predictions of the stock-to-flow model.
The dotted line corresponds to a stock-to-flow model for the cycle between the 2024 halving and the next scheduled halving in 2028. Halving is a scheduled event in Bitcoin that reduces the rewards that miners receive for validating blocks by half. As explained by CriptoNoticias, this mechanism gradually reduces the issuance of new BTC, reinforcing its scarcity.
More precisely, stock-to-flow attempts to estimate the value of BTC from this planned shortage. This model relates the number of existing currencies to the rate of issuance of new currencies. In this version, We expect the current average halving price to be close to $500,000. Needless to say, this estimate stands in contrast to the current BTC price, which is still very far from these levels. This brings the predictive ability of the model into discussion.
Finally, the colored dots represent the percentage of BTC included in the profit. Red and orange tones indicate that more than 90% of currencies are profitable, a situation that historically coincides with phases of euphoria and market ceilings. Blue hues, on the other hand, reflect periods where a smaller percentage of investors are holding on to profits, a phenomenon often seen during bear markets and capitulation stages.
It is worth noting that Plan B’s analysis comes at a sensitive time for BTC. BTC is still below $72,000, We continue to operate assets that are considered to be at risk in unfavorable conditions.
CriptoNoticias explains that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to cause uncertainty in global markets. This sea route is key to the global transportation of oil and petroleum. The disruption raises concerns about rising energy supply, logistics costs and new inflationary pressures.
If inflation remains high, central banks usually have less room to cut interest rates.
Criticism of the stock-to-flow model
This analysis of Plan B raised many questions among some social media users.
One of the most repeated criticisms is that the same analyst maintained a significantly bullish view on Bitcoin when it was trading near all-time highs, and has taken a bearish stance now that the price has fallen significantly.
“You confuse me. You were very bullish at $125,000, weren’t you? We’re now at $73,000 and you’re very bearish. “What’s changed?” user GeoOnChainz wrote.
As a user, TheNikxx identified recalling one of the model’s previous mistakes, saying, “S2F predicted the average halving in 2022 to be $135,000. Bitcoin reached $15,000.” In that sense, he noted that contrary to Chart’s current predictions, “the model continues to predict $500,000,” although the market is still far from that level.
Some questioned the usefulness of continuing to use the model despite its failures. “How many times does a model have to be wrong before you stop using it completely?” asked user NotAlex.
Still, Plan B’s current position is in line with that of other analysts who have been warning about the possibility of a new decline in Bitcoin in recent days. This includes Willy Wu, Crypto Rover, and Mikael van de Poppe, who think, albeit with different nuances, that: The market may go through further correction stages before finding a final bottom.
