Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant, said Bitcoin’s recent rally may be more of a recovery after a sharp sell-off than the start of a new bull market.
Adler Jr. said in his analysis that Bitcoin has experienced a market recovery after falling from $125,000 to $60,000, but many key indicators have yet to reach historic bear market lows. According to the analyst, the position structure of long-term investors (LTH) still does not show the typical bottom accumulation pattern. Furthermore, he pointed out that no full-scale spot selling or panic buying process has been observed in the market yet.
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Adler Jr. said the macroeconomic outlook is also putting pressure on risk assets, noting that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to an all-time low of 48.2. He also highlighted that inflation concerns are growing with Brent oil prices hovering around $100. The return of the 10-year US Treasury yield to above 4.5% was also cited as a factor restraining the market’s risk appetite.
The report also said interest rate markets are no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts by the Fed and are even starting to consider the possibility of future rate hikes.
In this regard, Adler Jr. said he maintains a cautious approach to the market, noting that sufficient on-chain structural confirmation has not yet been established on the Bitcoin side, spot demand is not stable, and supply-side pressures have not completely eased.
*This is not investment advice.
