The quantum threat to Bitcoin is closer than you think – just over two years away

According to the Quantum Doomsday Clock, a quantum computer could crack the encryption of Bitcoin (BTC) by March 8, 2028.

The quantum threat is more than just a technological hurdle. This has serious implications for digital assets and threatens the privacy of individuals who rely on Bitcoin for financial freedom.

BTC Encryption Deadline Approaching: Quantum Computers Approaching Breaking Point

The Quantum Doomsday Clock project has proposed a deadline for quantum computers to gain the ability to break modern encryption. According to the project, it will take just 2 years, 4 months, and 2 days for quantum machines to reach the number of logical qubits needed to compromise the security of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The study also highlights precise qubit requirements. Breaking RSA-2048 requires 2,314 logical qubits, RSA-4096 requires 3,971 qubits, and ECC-256 requires only 1,673 qubits. These calculations rely on surface code error correction, with estimated error rates ranging from 10^-3 to 10^-5.

They also consider the relationship between physical and logical qubits. Improvements in quantum error correction could further accelerate the schedule.

“Most recent research has been concerned with controlling and reducing error rates rather than increasing the number of qubits. If recent results are suggestive and the focus shifts to increasing the number of qubits, quantum supremacy could be achieved sooner than expected,” the study says.

This project cites basic research by Gidney & Ekarå (2021), Chevignard et al. (2024), Hyun Hak & Hong (2023). Once enough qubits are achieved, cryptographic attacks can be performed in hours or days.

The analysis also notes that public-key hash payment (P2PKH) Bitcoin wallets that use an unused public key for each transaction may enjoy a short period of additional safety. However, systems that continue to rely on current encryption standards will eventually need to move to post-quantum protocols to remain secure.

“I don’t necessarily agree with this calculus, but I think the goal is good because it gives us something visual to work with. If we haven’t solved Bitcoin’s quantum problem by this point…we’re going to be going down that stream without a paddle,” analyst Charles Edwards noted.

Experts warn of growing quantum threat to Bitcoin

Meanwhile, this is not the first time that experts have sounded the alarm about the increasing risks of Bitcoin’s quantum computing. In October, IBM CTO Michael Osborne told BeInCrypto that quantum risks to Bitcoin crypto were growing faster than expected.

IBM’s Starling project aims to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, which could threaten Bitcoin’s cryptocurrency. Naris Protocol CEO David Carvalho has warned that rapid advances in quantum computing could lead to Bitcoin’s security being breached within two to three years.

Similarly, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko warned that networks must move to quantum-proof cryptography within five years to avoid the possibility of a serious breach.

As quantum threats intensify, tech companies are working hard to develop quantum-proof infrastructure. Last month, BTQ Technologies announced that it had successfully demonstrated the first quantum-secure Bitcoin implementation using NIST-standardized post-quantum cryptography.

The project, called Bitcoin Quantum Core 0.2, replaces Bitcoin’s current ECDSA signature, which is vulnerable to quantum attacks, with ML-DSA, a NIST-approved digital signature algorithm. It aims to protect the $2 trillion Bitcoin market from quantum attacks.

It is therefore clear that a quantum-enabled future is not just theoretical, but imminent. Blockchain projects, tokenization platforms, and decentralized finance ecosystems must move quickly to secure cryptography or risk becoming obsolete. The challenge is clear. The Bitcoin community needs to coordinate the transition to quantum-secure technology before it is too late.

The article “The quantum threat to Bitcoin is closer than you think — just over two years away” was first published on BeInCrypto.