Someone built a losing Polymarket bot that only spends money on “no” trades, i.e. bets that an event will not occur.
A little-known fact is that about three-quarters of all bets on Polymarket end in no.
Artist and former Apple researcher Sterling Crispin turned that statistic into a trading bot and open sourced the code. He unveiled the bot, dubbed Nothing Ever Happens, on April 12, warning his followers to watch the journey, but not to expect any profit.
This announcement went viral.
“Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets say no?” Crispin wrote. “Stop thinking. Nothing will happen.”
That number is pretty close. According to Polymarket’s own accuracy page, across the solved market, the percentage of solutions is 73.3% no and 26.7% yes. In other words, the paper is, in a sense, a direct result of the platform.
Polymarket eliminates loopholes in Bitcoin quantitative trading
Probability does not guarantee profit
However, knowing that three-quarters of the results will resolve to “no” does not alone create a profitable strategy.
Polymarket event contract Ability to trade with built-in Yes and No execution pricesadjusted for other probabilities of singular events occurring.
For example, consider that if you have no open to trade at $0.75, you will get back $1 if you win. This 2,500 basis point profit barely covers the 26.7% of the time your bet could lose completely.
Crispin seems to understand that, too. After the original post went viral, he admitted, “This should be bought below $0.73 in the long term, and the bot has a configurable cap of $0.65, checking for new market purchases closer to $0.50.”
The $0.65 cap means the bot will only buy if the price of No is 65% or less on Polymarket. It looks for markets where the crowd has not yet priced in the possibility of a no-resolution base rate.
The GitHub repository has a disclaimer in bold italics. Use for entertainment purposes only and at your own risk.
A dashboard screenshot attached to the original post showed a $2,859 portfolio, primarily for demonstration purposes. This code repository has over 400 stars and is shipped under a public domain copyright license.
Introduction: Nothing happens
@Polymarket bot that automatically buys “no” and keeps resolved for all markets except sports.
Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets say no? Stop thinking. nothing happens. https://t.co/wLUfZkRbif pic.twitter.com/pMCePqtqtz
— Sterling Crispin 🕊️ (@sterlingcrispin) April 12, 2026
Yet another bot loses money on Polymarket
An on-chain analysis of 2.5 million wallets by researcher Andrey Sergeenkov found the following: 84.1% of wallets that traded on Polymarket lost money.. Only 0.033% earned more than $100,000.
The simplest strategy imaginable, i.e. betting “no” and walking away, outperforms most users of the platform.
Polymarket leans toward the premise of attracting media attention. Incredibly, the platform is hosting a parlay market for the “Nothing Ever Happens” series.
These parlays bundle unlikely events (China invades Taiwan, Bitcoin reaches $1 million, Trump takes Greenland) and force traders to bet that they won’t happen.
The 2026 annual edition has a volume of $489,000, with a price of “Nothing” of 56%.
Unsurprisingly, the parlay didn’t pay off. Jerome Powell’s version resolves to “no,” meaning something happened. So did the US Strike Edition after American military action met one of the trigger conditions.
Crispin is not your typical crypto trader. He describes himself as a conceptual artist and software engineer, and says he previously spent years at Apple, where he contributed to the neurotechnology patent for the Vision Pro headset.
