Simply put
- Bitcoin’s 50% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 is the shallowest on record compared to the 90% correction in 2012.
- Analysts point to ETF outflows and macro tightening as signs that the bear market is far from over.
- Decrypt said $60,000 and $55,000 to $45,000 are important levels to watch if selling pressure continues.
Bitcoin price movement in June was only down, with double-digit declines, as funds continued to flow out of ETFs amid rising geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions.
Still, the major cryptocurrencies are down 50% from their all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, making it the shallowest bear market in the world, according to CoinGecko data. Bitcoin’s history.
According to CryptoQuant data, the bear market drawdown in 2012 was over 90%. Since then, this number has continued to decline, reaching 82% in the next two cycles and 74% in the 2022 cycle. Compared to 50% of this cycle, the drawdown has become shallower over time.
“Bitcoin is now a more institutionalized macro asset, backed by a base of ETFs, deeper liquidity, and larger long-term allocators,” said Jeff Coe, chief analyst at crypto exchange CoinEx. decryption. “As such, drawdowns have been compressed throughout the cycle and we do not expect another 80% drawdown to occur in the current cycle.”
“Bitcoin’s ownership structure this cycle is very different from what we have seen in previous cycles,” said Martin Lee, Head of Content and Market Insights at DWF Labs. decryption. “We have institutions and companies that have Bitcoin on their balance sheets. We expect drawdowns to be shallower and overall volatility to be more moderate, as we have seen over the past two years.”
Does this mean the bottom of the bear market has entered? Experts say it’s unlikely decryptionThis suggests that we still have a long way to go.
Why Bitcoin won’t bottom out
Despite the 50% drawdown representing a “meaningful reset,” Koh doesn’t think the bear market is over.
Rather, CoinEx analysts said investors should pay attention to “ETF outflows, macro tightening, and liquidity rotation.” This will help determine how long the bear market will last, Koh said.
Alex Tsepaev, chief strategy officer at B2PRIME Group, echoed Ko’s views and suggested the bear market is not over yet. Rather, he said, “the current situation is bearish due to a combination of ETF outflows, macro pressures, and on-chain stress caused by both.”
“Since May 18th, there was only one day of inflows, June 4th. This shows how weak passive bidding has become,” Tsepaev said.
Identifying the bottom price of Bitcoin
Ko and Tsepaev both emphasized $60,000 as the first key psychological level and said they envisage a bearish scenario that retests the $55,000 and $45,000 levels.
Wintermute also takes a bearish view, suggesting in a note on Tuesday that support at $62,000 has been removed following Bitcoin’s recent decline. “There is no real technical level here as Bitcoin has never spent any meaningful time in the $50,000 to $59,000 range on its way up to 2024, so it remains with the flow as the direction-setting thing,” the market-making firm said.
Reflecting this, users of Myriad-owned prediction markets. of decryption Parent company Dastan estimated with a 72% probability that Bitcoin’s next move could be as low as $55,000. This number is up from 39% on June 1 and highlights a shift in sentiment towards the bears.
Ko highlighted a potential easing of tensions in the geopolitical outlook as a key catalyst that could help form a bottom for Bitcoin. Coe said de-escalation on this front could eliminate the energy and risk-off overhangs and open the door for the Fed to turn dovish, or at least signal that further rate hikes are off the table.
Increased demand for ETFs is the second driver highlighted by Ko.
in altcoin DWF analysts were the first to point out how Hyperliquid’s HYPE diverges from broader market trends. This is a “potential sign” that protocols will be evaluated individually on their own merits, rather than being at the mercy of Bitcoin’s performance.
“Not all tokens will recover. It’s just the nature of the marker, and assets are priced according to their merits over time. The same thing happens with stocks,” Lee said.
