One of the most anticipated periods for crypto traders and investors is the so-called altseason, or altcoin season.
it is, The era when alternative virtual currencies become widespread —Everything other than Bitcoin (BTC)— Performance that significantly outperforms Bitcoin.
When alt season arrives, the price of dozens of tokens can double in a matter of days, creating profits that would be hard to achieve quickly if your funds were parked solely in Bitcoin.
The logic behind this move is simple. After a period of concentrated attention and capital on Bitcoin, investors begin to shift their profits to assets with smaller market caps in search of more explosive returns. This flow of funds into altcoins causes prices to rise almost simultaneously.
To measure whether we are truly in an alt-season, Blockchain Center organization has developed a specific index. The criteria are clear. Altcoin season is considered to have begun when 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens such as WBTC and stETH, outperform Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
As of this writing, the index is below that threshold, as seen in the following image. This indicates the following: The market has not yet entered the alt season.
Van de Poppe sees upside potential, but not everyone agrees
Although the data has not yet confirmed a large-scale rotation into altcoins, some prominent traders within the ecosystem remain optimistic. Michael van de Poppe, one of the most followed market analysts on social networks
“We have shared this information before, but there is still a lot of upside potential for altcoins. Depending on how you look at it, the total market cap of altcoins could rise anywhere from 20% to 40%, with big gains in the long run before encountering resistance on higher time frames,” the trader wrote.
Van de Poppe accompanied his text with the following image showing the total value of the crypto market excluding Bitcoin and Ether (ETH).
This publication caused controversy. The responses to the post are a good indication of: Divided opinions that currently exist in the market.
Analyst Jean-Michel Rivera questioned this hypothesis from a structural perspective.
Visualizing upside potential ignores the increasing fragmentation of capital across thousands of assets. Total market capitalization is a crude metric that masks the internal deterioration of the old story. Overall movements of 20-40% typically lead to stagnation for most tokens as liquidity is concentrated in a few high-conviction sectors. Resistance is more than just a line on the chart; it is the absence of new buyers.
Jean-Michel Rivera, market analyst.
The view from the X Sterling desk account was more technical and cautious: “Altcoins always look attractive when the chart is close to support. The real test will be whether the structure can be maintained once liquidity returns to Bitcoin.”
“Altcoin movements typically start when most people are still skeptical. It’s a quiet moment of positioning.”
Discussions that have been going on for months
The question of whether there will be an alt season is not new. In early January, CriptoNoticias already reported that opinions were divided. Some analysts see favorable technical signals, such as a pattern similar to the 2016 and 2020 bottoms for the altcoin-Bitcoin pair, and others believe the market is moving closer to a bear cycle than a general rotation into altcoins.
What is clear is that even among optimistic people, What is expected is not a random alt season where all tokens go up..
Liquidity is more selective than in previous cycles, and capital-intensive narratives such as artificial intelligence and real-world assets (RWA) may lead any move, but most projects still lag.
In this regard, Van de Poppe’s post reflects a moderate amount of optimism. He sees room for growth in total altcoin capitalization, but does not promise that this movement will spread evenly to all corners of the market.
For now, the Blockchain Center index remains the most objective arbiter. And here’s his verdict: Alt season hasn’t started yet.
(Tag Translation) Altcoin
