Simply put
- Bernstein said the 2026 World Cup is expected to bring consumer sports betting and predictions market volume up to $10 billion.
- The investment firm suggested the soccer tournament could be a “watershed moment” for prediction markets and sports betting platforms.
- Robinhood and Coinbase are using tournaments to accelerate their prediction market businesses, Bernstein said.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup opens in stadiums across North America on Thursday, and while fans tune in to the beautiful game, Wall Street is focused on a different kind of score. That means billions of dollars are expected to flow into sportsbooks and betting markets over the next month.
With 104 games scheduled in an expanded 48-team format and approximately 60% more betting inventory than previous tournaments, analysts at investment firm Bernstein predict more than $3 billion in incremental processing and up to $10 billion in broad-based consumer volume increases across sports betting and prediction platforms.
This is an impressive number for what is traditionally the slowest period on the online sports betting calendar. Bernstein called the World Cup a “potential turning point” for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, saying the recent momentum in prediction markets from major companies like Calci and Polymarket could accelerate and drive growth in the coming years.
“Predictions are already changing before the first whistle. DraftKings revealed this week that annualized consumer transaction volume in May increased 24% month over month to $1.3 billion, and total transaction volume increased 34% to $3.1 billion, extending a strong three-month increase,” Bernstein analysts wrote.
“We have long argued that prediction markets are not a threat to the incumbent (TikTok, not Napster), but a new monetization layer for sports engagement,” they added. “While Calci and Polymarket have rapidly expanded, primarily in California, Texas, Georgia and Florida, we believe the World Cup will create opportunities for other parts of the sector to accelerate customer acquisition into a market expected to be worth trillions of dollars by 2030.”
Robinhood is using the event to commercially launch its own CFTC-approved prediction market exchange, Rothera, while Coinbase (which announced its prediction market exceeded $100 million in annual revenue within two months of launching its product in early 2026) is offering World Cup contracts through its partnership with Calsi.
Myriad users – prediction market platform operated by decryptionDastan’s parent company currently backs Spain as its chances of winning the World Cup with 18%, with France just behind on 17%.
